AbstractSome of the world most densely populated cities are located in estuarine low-lying areas facing a high risk of inundation with a potential for significant economic costs. The hazards associated with these processes arise from the particular characteristics of those environments, as linking zones between river and ocean systems, and increasing human activity in their marginal and surrounding areas. This point is emphasized by the World Disaster Report that focuses on urban risk, as well as by the European Union's strategy for prevention of natural and anthropic disasters.
Floods in estuaries are associated to particular climatological conditions, as the coincidence of very high tidal levels and large fresh-water discharges, or of high tides and storm surge conditions. In addition to these progressive phenomena, that are possible to predict and react, episodes of very intense and concentrated in time rainfall can lead to urban flooding in areas with insufficient drainage conditions and flash floods in small watersheds tributary to the estuary. The effects of high water levels in estuaries can be exacerbated by human interventions in the system, particularly in urban areas where drainage system behavior has to be considered. Rising sea levels and more extreme climate conditions will increase the vulnerability to inundation of estuarine margins. The quickness of these phenomena makes difficult to timely triggering of warning system with serious consequences for people and goods. In the context of climate change, the predictions generally accepted for mean sea level rise show that susceptibility to flooding of estuaries marginal areas will increase. MOLINES project addresses the risk of flooding in adjacent areas of estuaries considering the different hazards in an integrated way, with reference to the contribution of the EU/ EXIMAP as well as the objectives of the European Directive on Floods.
The Tagus estuary was chosen as study area because it is a paradigmatic case of territory conflict occupation along its margins, with exposure of critical and sensitive infrastructures, and high potential to flooding from different sources whose consequences are abundantly illustrated in recent past events. The estuary is included in the territorial unit of Lisbon and Tagus Valley, involving 18 municipalities in the metropolitan area of Lisbon, for which estimated a population exposed directly or indirectly of about one million inhabitants and in which are the most important infrastructures, equipment and strategic services, that are vital or sensitive at national level.
Objectives- Improving scientific knowledge in estuarine margins flooding processes (storm surge processes combined with tide effect, and urban drainage) for different climate scenarios
- Assess flood risk in different territory typologies (urban and interface)
- Creating a coordinated strategy for risk management, to promote preventive actions for planning, mitigate risk, and optimize alert and warning system
Main Innovation Aspects- Integration of hydrodynamic modeling and urban drainage modelling
- The approach will use different spatial scale models (estuarine and urban scale)
MethodologyThe study will use integrated and interdisciplinary methodologies. The analysis will be conducted in Tagus estuary using two distinct spatial scales (estuary and local level), allowing a more refined assessment of the problem. The evaluation in a larger scale will use as reference two territorial typologies (urban interface zone).
The numerical modeling of the estuary hydrodynamics and urban drainage will provide the extension of flood prone areas, velocity and depth of the water levels in flood stages.
An assessment of flood risk will be made, based on which a set of guidelines will be produced, as well as recommendations and standards for management tools support, prevention and risk mitigation and risk communication and warning.
ResultsSpatial distribution of database estuarine flood occurrences in the Tagus estuary (in Rilo, et al., 2015)
Temporal distribution of annual flood occurrences between 1865 and 2013 (in Rilo, et al., 2015)
Principal components of vulnerability in the Tagus estuary (in Tavares et al., 2015)
Extreme sea levels along the Iberian Atlantic coast for a return period of 100 years (in Fortunato et al., 2016).
Maps of extreme water levels considering a 1.5 m sea level rise and a 1000 years return period. Levels are in meters, relative to Chart Datum (in Guerreiro et al., 2015).
Cartographic representation of flood hazard in Seixal Bay for the 100-year return period scenario: a) extent and depth of flooding; b) hazard index (in Freire et al, 2015)
Local parameters for the assessment of vulnerability in the Old City Centre of Seixal
Risk index in the Seixal municipality for a 100-year return period scenario
Real time velocity prediction snapshot in the Tagus estuary (couple wave-currents model)
Virtual sensor for significant wave height and water levels: output at the APL buoy
Early-warning detailed view for the Seixal Municipality: alerts for critical points
Flooding area and water level prediction and alert for critical points in the Dafundo area (1D-2D model) for sea water level of 2.7 m (MSL) and rainfall event with a return period of 50 years
Flooding area and water level results in the Dafundo area (1D-2D model) for sea water level of 2.7 m (MSL) and rainfall event with a return period of 50 years
Flooding area and water level prediction and alert for critical points in the Dafundo area (1D-2D model) for sea water level of 2.7 m (MSL) and rainfall event with a return period of 10 years
TeamNATIONAL LABORATORY FOR CIVIL ENGINEERING (LNEC)
Paula Freire, André Fortunato, Ana Rilo, Ricardo Costa, Kai Li (DHA/NEC)
Anabela Oliveira, João Gomes, João Rogeiro, Gonçalo de Jesus (DHA/GTI)
Maria Adriana Cardoso, Maria do Céu Almeida, Rita Sofia Brito, Paula Maria Beceiro (DHA/NES)
João Palha Fernandes (NTIEC)
CENTER FOR SOCIAL STUDIES, UNIVERSITY OF COIMBRA (CES/UC)
Alexandre Tavares, Pedro Santos
NATIONAL AUTHORITY FOR CIVIL PROTECTION (
ANPC)
Patrícia Pires, Luís Sá, Jorge Dias, Giuseppe Cornaglia
SCIENTIFIC CONSULTANT
Xavier Bertin (Universidade de La Rochelle, França)
FINAL REPORT
PublicationsBook chapters
- Rilo, A., Freire, P., Tavares, A.O., Santos, P.P:, Sá, L., (2015). Historical flood events in the Tagus estuary:
Contribution to risk assessment and management tools. In: Safety and
Reliability of Complex Engineered Systems – Podofllini et al. (Eds)
2015, Taylor & Francis Group, London, ISBN 978-1-138-02879-1:
4281-4286.
- Santos P.P., Tavares A.O., Freire, P., Fortunato, A., Rilo, A., (2015). Territorial vulnerability to flooding in an estuarine area:
Challenges valuing the structural and societal local . In: Safety and
Reliability of Complex Engineered Systems – Podofillini et al. (Eds)
2015 , Taylor & Francis Group, London, ISBN 978-1-138-02879-1:
4273-4280.
- Santos, P., Tavares, A.O., Fortunato, A.B., Rilo, A.R., Freire. P 2015. Assessment of social vulnerability in a estuarine context. In:
Kremers and Susini (Eds.), Risk Information Management, Risk Models and
Applications. Lecture Notes in Information Sciences, vol.7. CODATA
Germany, Berlin. ISBN: 978-3-00-048844-3.
Papers in international journals
- Freire,
P., Tavares, A., Sá,
L., Oliveira, A., Fortunato, A., Santos, P., Rilo, A., Gomes, J.
L., Rogeiro,
J., Pablo, R., Pinto, P.L. (2016). A local scale approach to
estuarine flood
risk management, Natural Hazards, doi:10.1007/s11069-016-2510-y
- Fortunato, A.B., K. Li, X. Bertin, M. Rodrigues, B.M. Miguez (2016). Determination of extreme sea levels along the Iberian Atlantic Coast, Ocean Engineering, 111: 471-482.
- Guerreiro,
M., Fortunato, A.B., Freire, P., Rilo, A.R., Taborda, R., Freitas,
M.C., Andrade, C., Silva, T., Rodrigues, M., Bertin, X., Azevedo, A.
2015. Evolution of the tidal dynamics of the Tagus estuary in the 21st century. Revista de Gestão Costeira Integrada, volume 15 (1), 65-80. doi:10.5894/rgci515
- Tavares, A. O., Santos, P. P., Freire, P., Fortunato, A. B., Rilo, A., Sá, L. 2015. Flooding hazard in the Tagus estuarine area: The challenge of scale in vulnerability assessment. Environmental Science & Policy, 51, 238-255. doi:10.1016/j.envsci.2015.04.010
Proceedings in international conferences
- Santos, P. P.,
Tavares, A. O.,
Freire, P., Rilo, A. (2016). Scale issues in local vulnerability
assessments: implications in risk and urban planning. Atas do
ICUR 2016 -
International Conference on Urban Risks, Lisboa, 30 de junho a 2
de julho de
2016, Centro Europeu de Riscos Urbanos, 455-462.
- Gomes J.L., Jesus G., Rogeiro J., Oliveira A., Costa R., Fortunato A. (2015). Molines – towards a responsive Web platform for flood forecasting and risk mitigation.
Proceedings of the Federated Conference on Computer Science and
Information Systems pp. 1171–1176 ACSIS, Vol. 5 DOI: 10.15439/2015F265.
- Jesus
G., Oliveira A., Azevedo A., Casimiro A. (2015) Improving sensor-fusion
with environmental models. IEEE Sensors 2015, 1839-1842.
- Fortunato A.B., Li K., Bertin X., Rodrigues, M., Miguez, B.M. Determination of extreme water levels along the Iberian Atlantic coast, 2014. IMUM2014
– 13th International workshop on multiscale (un-)structured mesh
numerical modeling for coastal, shelf, and global ocean dynamics, 25-27
agosto 2014, Lisboa: 2p.
- Freire P., Fortunato A.B, Rilo A., Bertin, X., Li, K., 2014. Flood risk assessment in estuaries. The importance of historical data integration in predictive tools development. ECSA54.
Coastal systems under change: tuning assessment and management tools,
12-16 May 2014, Sesimbra, Portugal. Programme and Book of Abstracts,
Centro de Oceanografia, ECSA: p.70.
- Rilo, A., Taborda, R., Freire, P., Freitas, M.C., Andrade, C., Silva, T., Caçador, I ., 2014. A simple model to forecast estuarine morphologic evolution in response to sea level rise. In:
ECSA54 . Coastal systems under change: tuning assessment and management
tools. 12-16 May 2014, Sesimbra, Portugal. Book of Abstracts, Centro de
Oceanografia, ECSA: 82.
- Fortunato A.B., Li K., Bertin X., Rodrigues, M., Miguez, B.M. Détermination de la période de retour des niveaux extrêmes et des submersions.
In Colloque international "Submersions marines: passé, présent, futur”.
19-21 junho 2014, Rochefort/La Faute sur Mer/La Rochelle, França, 2pp.
Proceedings in national conferences
- Freire, P.,
Fortunato, A. B., Rodrigues, M.,
Santos, P. P., Rilo, P., Tavares, A. O. (2016). The effect of
storm events in
the Tagus estuarine margins. Atas das 4as Jornadas de Engenharia
Hidrográfica,
Lisboa, 21 a 23 de junho de 2016: 261-264, Instituto
Hidrográfico. ISBN -
978-989-705-097-8
- Oliveira, A.,
Rogeiro, J., Gomes, J.L.,
Pinto, P., Fortunato, A. B., Freire, P., Costa, R. T., Sá, L.,
Pabrlo, R.,
Mendes, A. (2016). Plataforma integrada WebSIG para apoio à
gestão da emergência
em eventos de inundação em estuários. Atas das 4as Jornadas de
Engenharia
Hidrográfica, Lisboa, 21 a 23 de junho de 2016: 121-124,
Instituto
Hidrográfico. ISBN - 978-989-705-097-8
- Freire, P.,
Fortunato, A. B., Rodrigues, M.,
Santos, P. P., Rilo, P., Tavares, A. O. (2016). The effect of
storm events in
the Tagus estuarine margins. Atas das 4as Jornadas de Engenharia
Hidrográfica,
Lisboa, 21 a 23 de junho de 2016: 261-264, Instituto
Hidrográfico. ISBN -
978-989-705-097-8 (segue o pdf)
- Oliveira, A.,
Rogeiro, J., Gomes, J.L.,
Pinto, P., Fortunato, A. B., Freire, P., Costa, R. T., Sá, L.,
Pabrlo, R.,
Mendes, A. (2016). Plataforma integrada WebSIG para apoio à
gestão da emergência
em eventos de inundação em estuários. Atas das 4as Jornadas de
Engenharia
Hidrográfica, Lisboa, 21 a 23 de junho de 2016: 121-124,
Instituto
Hidrográfico. ISBN - 978-989-705-097-8 (segue o pdf)
- Oliveira A.; J. Rogeiro; A. Azevedo; A. B. Fortunato; R. Costa; M.
Rodrigues; K. Li; J. P. Martins; M. David; J. Pina; J. Gomes (2015). Sistema
Multi-escala de Previsão em Tempo Real da Dinâmica Estuarina E
Costeira: Desafios para a Operacionalização em Ambiente Cloud e HPC. VIII Congresso sobre Planeamento e Gestão das Zonas Costeiras dos Países de Expressão Portuguesa, APRH (eds), 15 pp
- Cardoso, M. A., Almeida, M. C, Brito, R. S., Beceiro, P. (2015). Modelação integrada da drenagem urbana em zonas estuarinas: avaliação da inundação para cenários climatéricos. 10º Encontro Nacional de Entidades Gestoras de Água e Saneamento , ENEG 2015, Porto, 1-4 de dezembro.
- Fortunato, A. B., Costa, R. T., Li, K., Rogeiro, J., Gomes, J., Rilo, A., Freire, P., Oliveira, A., 2015. Desenvolvimento de um sistema operacional de previsão dos níveis extremos na costa Portuguesa.
VIII Congresso sobre Planeamento e Gestão das Zonas Costeiras dos
Países de Expressão Portuguesa, 14-16 outubro de 2015, Universidade de
Aveiro, 15p.
- Freire, P. M.S.; Tavares, A.O.; Fortunato, A.B.; Sá, L.; Oliveira, A.; Rilo, A.; Santos, P.P., 2015. Modelação da inundação em estuários. Da avaliação da perigosidade à gestão crítica.
VIII Congresso sobre Planeamento e Gestão das Zonas Costeiras dos
Países de Expressão Portuguesa, 14-16 outubro de 2015, Universidade de
Aveiro, 15 p.
- Fortunato, A. B., Li, K., Freire, P., Rilo, P., Bertin, X., 2015. Numerical modeling of extreme events in the Tagus Estuary.
MEC 2015 - 3ª Conferência sobre morfodinâmica estuarina e costeira
Universidade do Algarve, 14-15 Maio 2015, Algarve, Portugal: 7-38.
- Freire, P., Rilo, A., Santos, P. P., Fortunato, A. B., Tavares, A. O., Cardoso, M.A., 2015. Risco de inundação em estuários. Caracterização das componentes de perigo a diferentes escalas espaciais. MEC
2015 - Conferência sobre morfodinâmica estuarina e costeira
Universidade do Algarve, 14-15 Maio 2015, Algarve, Portugal: 19-20.
- Santos P.P., Barros J.L., Tavares, A.O. 2015. Utilização
de tecnologias SIG e serviços em cloud na avaliação do risco: aplicação
à vulnerabilidade estrutural a processos de inundação. Iªs Jornadas Lusófonas de Ciências e Tecnologias de Informação Geográfica, 11-13 Setembro 2014, Coimbra, Portugal: 390-404.
- Santos, P.P., Tavares, A.O., Freire, P., Rilo, A., 2015. Avaliação
da vulnerabilidade a inundações no estuário do Tejo: o desafio da
representação das dimensões territoriais à escala local. IX Encontro Nacional de Riscos e II Fórum de Riscos e Segurança, 15 de Maio de 2015, Aveiro: p.37.
- Fortunato, A.B, Li, K, Bertin, X, Rodrigues, M., 2014. Determination of extreme sea levels along the Portuguese coast. Actas das 3.as Jornadas de Engenharia Hidrográfica, 24, 25 e 26 de junho de 2014, Instituto Hidrográfico, Lisboa: 151-154.
- Freire, P., Tavares, A., Fortunato, A.B., Oliveira, A., Cardoso, M.A. and Pires, P., 2014. An Integrated Approach for Flood Risk Assessment in Estuaries. In: Actas das 3.as Jornadas de Engenharia Hidrográfica, 24, 25 e 26 de junho de 2014, Instituto Hidrográfico, Lisboa: 313-316.
- Rilo, A., Fortunato, A.B., Freire, P., Li, K., Tavares, A., 2014. Suscetibilidade à inundação de margens estuarinas. Aplicação à baía do Seixal (estuário do Tejo, Portugal). In: Actas das 3.as Jornadas de Engenharia Hidrográfica, 24, 25 e 26 de junho de 2014, Instituto Hidrográfico, Lisboa: 317-320.
Reports
- Costa,
R.A.T., 2015. Reletório de actividades da bolsa de investigação para
Mestre (BI) MOLINES: Modelação da inundação em estuários. Da avaliação
da perigosidade à gestão crítica (PTDC/AAG-MAA/2811/2012), 8p.
- Li,
K., 2015. Storm surge modelling for water level and inundation
forecasting in Tagus estuary. Activity report. MOLINES: Modelação da
inundação em estuários. Da avaliação da perigosidade à gestão crítica
(PTDC/AAG-MAA/2811/2012), 15p.