Publications

Coastal hazards such as flooding and erosion can cause large economic and human losses. Under this threat, early warning systems can be very cost-effective solutions for disaster preparation. The goal of this study was to develop, test, and implement an operational coastal erosion early warning system supported by a particular method of machine learning. Thus, the system combines Bayesian Networks, and state-of-the-art numerical models, such as XBeach and SWAN, to predict storm erosion impacts in urbanized areas. This system was developed in two phases. In the development phase, all information required to apply the machine learning method was generated including the definition of hundreds of oceanic synthetic storms, modeling of the erosion caused by these storms, and characterization of the impact levels according to a newly defined eerosion iimpact index. This adimensional index relates the distance from the edge of the dune/beach scarp to buildings and the height of that scarp. Finally, a Bayesian Network that acted as a surrogate of the previously generated information was built. After the training of the network, the conditional probability tables were created. These tables constituted the ground knowledge to make the predictions in the second phase. This methodology was validated (1) by comparing 6-h predictions obtained with the Bayesian Network and with process-based models, the latest considered as the benchmark, and (2) by assessing the predictive skills of the Bayesian Network through the unbiased iterative k-fold cross-validation procedure. Regarding the first comparison, the analysis considered the entire duration of three large storms whose return periods were 10, 16, and 25 years, and it was observed that the Bayesian Network correctly predicted between 64% and 72% of the impacts during the course of the storms, depending on the area analyzed. Importantly, this method was also able to identify when the hazardous conditions disappeared after predicting potential consequences. Regarding the Regarding the second validation approach, second validation approach, the k-fold cross-validation procedure was applied to the peak of a set of varying storms and it demonstrated that the predictive skills were maximized (63%

A wave flume is used to study a scaled model of a stepped bottom dual-chamber Oscillating Water Column (OWC) installed onshore. Compared to traditional single-chamber OWCs, the use of dual-chambers is expected to widen the range of sea states in which the OWC is more efficient, and the step, in front of the first chamber, boosts the capturing energy capacity of the device. The Power Take-Off (PTO) system is modelled as an air opening in the pneumatic chambers. Several experiments combining regular incident waves and PTO damping conditions are performed. Results of the amplitudes of the free surface elevations inside the chambers show that the device can amplify the incident wave amplitude up to 1.57 times in chamber 2. Results of the primary efficiency show that the device is highly dependent on the PTO damping characteristics and can reach around 40% for a wide range of wave periods. Results of the reflection analysis show that the reflection coefficient is also dependent on the PTO damping characteristics but remain lower than 0.6 for all the studied cases. Sloshing phenomenon (mostly in the cross-section direction) was observed for a wavelength close to the cross-section dimension, impacting negatively on the device pneumatic performance.

Performance and hydrodynamics of an array of Oscillating Water Column (OWC) Wave Energy Converter (WEC) integrated into a vertical breakwater is studied. The FLUENT® software, in which the numerical model is based on the Reynolds-Averaged Navier-Stokes equations and the Volume of Fluid method for free surface flow modeling, is used in a 3D numerical wave tank. Three vertical breakwater configurations subject to the action of incident regular waves with periods from 6 to 12 s are studied: normal breakwater, with vertical walls parallel to the direction along the breakwater length; and two novel breakwater geometries, partially and fully convergent breakwaters, whose converging vertical walls are inclined

This study aims to validate a numerical model based on Reynolds-averaged Navier

Storms impacting sandy coastal areas produce hazards such as erosion and overwash that, in turn, promote risk to life and property damage in occupied areas. Coastal damage and risks willincrease in the future not only in association with climate change but also due to the growinghuman occupation in coastal areas (van Dongeren et al., 2018). Since the threatened coastal areas are often densely populated, there is a need to implement measures to prevent risks. One of such measures is the use of Early Warning Systems (EWS) that anticipate expected risks and, therefore, work as management tools to minimize or avoid disaster. This work presents the basis of an EWS prototype to alert about the potential consequences of overwash/overtopping and erosion induced by storms, in coastal areas.

Beaches combined with sloping structures are frequently the frst element of defense to protect urban areas from the impact of extreme coastal fooding events. However, these structures are rarely designed for null wave overtopping discharges, accepting that waves can pass above the crest and threat exposed elements in hinterland areas, such as pedestrians, urban elements and buildings, and vehicles. To reduce risks, Early Warning Systems (EWSs) can be used to anticipate and minimize the impacts of fooding episodes on those elements. A key aspect of these systems is the defnition of non-admissible discharge levels that trigger signifcant impacts. However, large discrepancies in defning these discharge levels and the associated impacts are found among the existing methods to assess foodings. Due to the lack of standardization, a new conceptual and quantitative four-level (from no-impact to high-impact) categorization of food warnings (EW-Coast) is proposed. EW-Coast integrates and unifes previous methods and builds on them by incorporating feld-based information. Thus, the new categorization successfully predicted the impact level on 70%, 82%, and 85% of the overtopping episodes afecting pedestrians, urban elements and buildings, and vehicles, respectively. This demonstrates its suitability to support EWSs in areas vulnerable to wave-induced fooding.

During physical scale model tests of rubble mound breakwaters, the assessment of the eroded volume of the armour layer subjected to incident sea waves can be determined from consecutive surveys of the surface of the armour layer after each test run. This enables one to assess the damage level of the struc ture by comparing erosion profiles and by the eroded volume between consecutive surveys of the tested section. The present study aimed to evaluate the damage evolu tion of a section of the Peniche harbour west breakwater, whose armour layer is made of tetrapods, A dimensionless damage parameter was computed, based on the eroded volume at the end of each test. The test program consisted of three test series (A, B and C) with different durations and wave conditions sequences, considering the low-water level (water depth of 0.20 m at the toe of the structure) and high-water level (0.24 m) and sea states with peak periods Tp = 1.70 s and Tp = 1.98 s and significant wave heights, Hm0, ranging between 0.12 m and 0.19 m. The model was built and operated according to Froude

Melby presents a formula to predict damage evolution in rubble-mound breakwaterswhose armour layer is made of rock, based on the erosion measured in scale-model tests and thecharacteristics of the incident sea waves in such tests. However, this formula is only valid for armourlayers made of rock and for the range of tested sea states. The present work aims to show howthe Melby methodology can be used to establish a similar formula for the armour layer damageevolution in a rubble-mound breakwater where tetrapods are employed. For that, a long-durationtest series is conducted with a 1:50 scale model of the quay section of the Ericeira Harbour breakwater.The eroded volume of the armour layer was measured using a Kinect position sensor. The damageparameter values measured in the experiments are lower than those predicted by the formulationfor rock armour layers. New ap and b coefficients for the Melby formula for the tested armour layerwere established based on the minimum root mean square error between the measured and thepredicted damage. This work shows also that it is possible to assess the damage evolution in scale model tests with rubble-mound breakwaters by computing the eroded volume and subsequently, thedimensionless damage parameter based on the equivalent removed armour units.

The objective of this work is the comparison of two methodologies used for run-up measurements in a two-dimensional physical model, which represented the protection breakwaters of the Peniche and Ericeira

Coastal flooding prediction systems can be an efficient risk-reduction instrument. The goal of this study was to design, build, test, and implement a wave-induced flooding early warning system in urban areas fronted by sandy beaches. The system utilizes a novel approach that combines Bayesian Networks and numerical models (SWAN + XBeach) and was developed in two phases. In the development phase, firstly, the learning information was generated including the creation of oceanic conditions, modeling overtopping discharges, the haracterization of the associated im pacts (no, low, moderate and high) in pedestrians, urban components and buildings, and vehicles, and secondly, the Bayesian Networks were designed that surrogated the previously generated information. After their training, the conditional probability tables were created representing the foundation to make predictions in the operational phase. This methodology was validated for several historical events which hit the study area (Praia de Faro, Portugal), and the system correctly predicted the impact level of around 80% of the cases. Also, the predictive skills varied depending on the level, with the no and high impact levels overcoming the intermediate levels. In terms of efficiency, one simulation (deterministic) of coastal flooding for 72 h by running SWAN + XBeach operationally would take more than two days on a one-logical processor workstation, while the current approach can provide quasi-instantaneously predictions for that period, including probability distributions. Moreover, the two-working phase approach is very flexible enabling the inclusion of additional features such as social components representing a powerful tool for risk reduction in coastal communities.

O fenómeno de galgamento representa uma das maiores preocupações nas zonas costeiras e portuárias na medida em que o seu impacto tem implicações ao nível da segurança das pessoas, bens, equipamentos e infraestruturas localizadas nas zonas protegidas por estruturas marítimas, bem como da segurança e funcionalidade das próprias estruturas, com importância ao nível socioeconómico.Com o presente estudo pretende-se aplicar a metodologia desenvolvida pelo Laboratório Nacional de Engenharia Civil (LNEC) (Reis et al., 2011; Santos et al., 2011; Neves et al., 2012a e Rocha et al., 2013) para a avaliação do risco de galgamento de estruturas portuárias ao porto de Ponta Delgada, nos Açores.Esta avaliação implica uma caraterização adequada dos estados de mar junto das estruturas baseando-se num período de trinta e quatro anos (1979

O HIDRALERTA é um sistema de previsão, alerta e avaliação do risco associado aos galgamentos e inundação em zonas portuárias, tendo como ideia-base a utilização de medições/previsões da agitação marítima para calcular o galgamento e a inundação nessas zonas. A avaliação do risco associado a estes fenómenos é efetuada através da definição de limiares para os caudais galgados ou para as cotas de inundação admissíveis, e pelo produto do grau da probabilidade de ocorrência de valores desses caudais pelo grau das consequências desses acontecimentos.No sistema, o cálculo dos caudais médios galgados sobre uma estrutura é efetuado com recurso a ferramentas neuronais (NN_OVERTOPPING2) e/ou ferramentas empíricas, que são métodos expeditos e que não fornecem indicação sobre a distribuição espacial desse caudal na zona atrás da estrutura.Nesta comunicação, é apresentada uma metodologia incorporada no HIDRALERTA com o intuito de modelar o galgamento e a inundação na sua distribuição espacial, recorrendo a ferramentas SIG. Essa metodologia consiste na utilização dos resultados da NN_OVERTOPPING2 para o cálculo do caudal médio galgado por metro linear de estrutura, a partir de onde se pode obter o volume de água correspondente e posterior distribuição desse volume no modelo Digital do Terreno da zona em estudo. O caso de estudo localiza-se no porto e baia da Praia da Vitória, na Ilha Terceira, nos Açores.

Os quebra-mares de talude são estruturas normalmente utilizadas para proteção costeira e portuária eestão sujeitas durante a sua vida útil a diferentes solicitações (p.e., agitação marítima). A avaliação do seu estadoestrutural e a previsão do seu comportamento ao longo do tempo torna-se um assunto fundamental de modo aevitar significativos prejuízos materiais. É nesse âmbito que se insere o programa de observação sistemática, emcurso no LNEC, desde 1986, para quebra-mares localizados em Portugal Continental, no qual o LaboratórioNacional de Engenharia Civil (LNEC) efetua inspeções periódicas e avalia as condições de segurança de cadaquebra-mar. Para apoio a esse programa desenvolveu-se uma aplicação informática em Microsoft Access

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The present work focuses on the comparison between three types of data analysis (timeanalysis; Fourier transform spectral analysis; and wavelet transform spectral analysis) appliedto different types of waves (monochromatic, bichromatic and irregular). The main objective isto study experimentally wave shoaling and breaking over a set of different gentle slopes forseveral incident waves.The data and results from time, Fourier and wavelet analysis presented include: free surfaceelevation along the flume and the corresponding amplitude spectra; significant wave height,Hs, and significant wave period, Ts, along the flume.

No presente trabalho, apresentam-se as metodologias e procedimentos em ensaios emmodelo físico reduzido de estruturas marítimas, destinados a facilitar, agilizar e automatizarquer a análise do dano do manto protetor de quebra mares de taludes, provocado pelaagitação marítima nela incidente, quer o acesso remoto aos ensaios, e à informaçãoassociada à realização destes, proporcionado a clientes/investigadores interessados.Para a avaliação da evolução do dano na estrutura, as metodologias em desenvolvimentono LNEC incluem: a) a utilização de imagens consecutivas, obtidas ao longo de séries deensaios em modelo físico, efetuando-se a comparação através de algoritmos em MATLAB oque possibilita, através da análise de diferenças entre fotografias obtidas em ensaiosconsecutivos, a identificação de áreas de movimentação e/ou quedas de blocos do mantoda estrutura; b) a adoção de técnicas estéreo-fotogramétricas, para levantamento de perfisde secções de modelos físicos.Para o acesso remoto dos ensaios realizados nas instalações experimentais do LNEC, ametodologia em desenvolvimento no LNEC passa pela visualização em tempo real, não sódos ensaios propriamente ditos mas também de outra informação associada aos mesmos,tais como parâmetros característicos, análises, etc. e tem como destinatários potenciaisutilizadores dos ensaios (cliente, projetista, etc.).

Techniques based on Artificial Neural Networks (ANN) have been increasingly applied topredict natural hazards. In this work, a Fuzzy ARTMAP ANN was trained to predict the waveregime at the entrance and inside the Sines Port, on the Portuguese west coast. In situmeasurements, buoy data and results from numerical modeling were used to train andvalidate the ANN. The wave regime was calculated for different points outside and inside theport. This methodology proved to be able to provide a fast and satisfactory response,especially useful in the scope of forecast and warning systems.

Nesta comunicação faz-se a descrição dos módulos do sistema de previsão e alerta degalgamento/inundações em zonas costeiras e portuárias, HIDRALERTA. Este sistema, que está emdesenvolvimento, efetua previsões de agitação marítima até 180 horas, e calcula os correspondentesgalgamentos/cotas de inundação recorrendo a modelos numéricos, redes neuronais e/ou fórmulasempíricas. Sempre que sejam excedidos limites pré-estabelecidos para os galgamentos/cotas deinundação de cada área da zona de estudo, definidos de acordo com a sua vulnerabilidade, é acionadoo alerta. Ilustra-se a aplicação deste sistema na Costa da Caparica, cujos acontecimentos recentes degalgamento/inundação evidenciam as suas potencialidades.

Nesta comunicação descrevem-se os desenvolvimentos recentes do sistema HIDRALERTA, de previsão,alerta e avaliação de risco associado ao galgamento e inundação em zonas costeiras e portuárias. O sistema tem comoideia-base a utilização de previsões da agitação marítima para avaliar os efeitos dos galgamentos/inundações,recorrendo à modelação numérica, redes neuronais e/ou fórmulas empíricas. O sistema permite: a avaliação, em temporeal, de situações de emergência e a consequente emissão de alertas às entidades competentes; e a avaliação do risco,produzindo-se mapas de risco para apoio ao processo de tomada de decisão. Trata-se de um sistema modular que está aser desenvolvido em linguagem Python e implementado numa plataforma WebGIS. Neste momento, estão emimplementação dois protótipos deste sistema: o porto da Praia da Vitória e a praia de S. João da Caparica.

The aims of this project are to study the wave dynamics, formation mechanisms and statisticalproperties of extreme and rogue waves on the water surface. Bimodal/crossing seas cangenerate extreme and rogue wave events and are relatively common in the open ocean. Aseries of experiments was carried out in the Marintek Ocean Basin in Trondheim underconditions close to those found in the open sea. Rogue waves, i.e. events with crests largerthan or equal to five times the standard deviation or wave heights larger than or equal to twicethe significant wave height, were observed in each test. The mean height of the highest wavesincreased with increasing record length and increasing kurtosis. For the bimodal/crossingconditions there was little difference between the observed values of kurtosis and an empiricalestimate, particularly if the effect of bound waves are included.

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