Publications

Tidal inlets and embayments constitute navigation routes and they control thestability of adjacent shorelines and the exchanges of water, sediment and dissolvedmaterial between the ocean and back-barrier lagoons. Tidal inlets are thus of critical and growing socio-economical and environmental importance worldwide. They are oftenexceptionally dynamic, due to the combination of tide- and wave-driven processes. Thisintense dynamics drives fast and large morphological changes, which make their behaviorhard to predict and their sustainable management difficult to achieve. To address thisproblem, the development of morphodynamic modeling systems has emerged over thelast decade as the most promising perspective to understand their behavior and predicttheir evolution. Morphodynamic modeling systems, whose development and successfulapplication to tidal inlets has been growing over the last decade, couple a set of modulesto simulate hydrodynamic circulation, wave propagation, sediment transport and bottomevolution.This chapter provides in introduction a synthesis of the existing quantitative methods to investigate tidal inlets and points out the advantages and limitations of morphodynamic modeling systems compared to physical, empirical and analytical models. The next section describes the main principles of morphodynamic modeling systems and explains how the different modules are coupled together. The following section illustrates through three selected applications the capabilities of morphodynamic modeling systems tosimulate morphological changes of tidal inlets at various time scales, but also toinvestigate the mechanisms that control their development. The final section providessome conclusions and perspectives regarding the morphodynamic modeling of tidalinlets.

Although rising global sea levels will affect the estuarine flooded areas over the coming decades, the local and regional-scale processes will also induce important changes in these coastal systems. The main aim of this work is to investigate possible tidal changes in estuarine systems induced by local geomorphologic modifications, analyzing the particular case of Ria de Aveiro which is in risk of inundation. Located in the Portuguese west coast, this tidally driven lagoon has a large area of mostly abandoned salt pans, which are in progressive degradation caused by the lack of maintenance and by the strong currents which erode their protective walls.To explore possible tidal changes the hydrodynamic model ELCIRC was applied to Ria de Aveiro to simulate and analyse the impact in the lagoon hydrodynamics of this degradation which results in the enlargement of the lagoon flooded area. A high-resolution grid (grid spacing of the order of 1 m) was developed in order to represent the narrow channels adjacent to the salt pans. The hydrodynamic model was then successfully calibrated and assessed for skill for the Aveiro lagoon through comparison between measurements and model results and quantification of the numerical accuracy. The model was subsequently used to investigate the effect of the flooded lagoon area enlargement on tidal propagation in Ria de Aveiro. Simulations were performed for three geomorphologic configurations, representing the reference or present situation and two flooded scenarios. Results were compared through the analysis of tidal currents, tidal asymmetry and tidal prism.The increase of the lagoon flooded area results in an intensification of the tidal currents, tidal prism and tidal asymmetry. Results also indicate that the tidal prism further increases when the flooding depth increases. Otherwise, changes in tidal currents and in tidal asymmetry pattern are negligible with the increase of the flooded area depth.These results indicate that modifications of the flooded area of estuarine systems will result in tidal changes, with an intensification of the actual tidal patterns induced by the enlargement of inundation areas.

Among the different types of tidal inlets, wave-dominated inlets have been subjected to few quantitative studies, so that the physical processes controlling their dynamics are not fully understood. This study presents the application of a coastal area morphodynamic modeling system to a wave- dominated inlet (O´ bidos Inlet, western coast of Portugal), in order to investigate the physical processes responsible for channel development during fair weather conditions and shoaling during periods of larger waves. The modeling system was able to reproduce reasonably well morphological changes at the O´ bidos Inlet and subsequent tidal amplitude evolutions inside the lagoon over a period which includes 3 months of fair weather conditions, followed by 2 months representative of winter conditions. The inlet development during fair weather conditions was attributed to the strong ebb-dominance of the main channel without waves, enhanced by the combination of shallow channels and a meso-tidal range. The inlet infilling during the maritime winter was attributed to three main wave-induced mechanisms: (1) the onshore component of wave radiation stresse gradients, which is not fully compensated by the wave-induced setup in front of the inlet; (2) the acceleration and convergence of longshore transport toward the inlet, due to the presence of a strong lateral gradient in free surface elevation on both sides of the inlet, and, to a smaller extent, to wave refraction around the ebb-delta; and (3) the increase in mean water level inside the lagoon, which reduces tidal asymmetry and subsequent ebb-dominance.

The environmental and economical consequences of an oil spill near coastal areas lead to an increasing effort by governments and the oil industry to develop tools, such as oil spill modeling systems, that could be used to mitigate these types of catastrophes. Oil spill modeling systems simulate hydrodynamics and the physical, chemical and biological processes that determine the fate of oil slicks. Recent technological developments, such as PC clusters, make these systems extremely attractive for practical applications in support of accident prevention and mitigation measures. This paper introduces a new oil spill modeling system and describes its application to the Prestige disaster (Northeast of the Iberian Peninsula, November 2002). The modeling system includes a flexible oil spill model, which can be used as a 2D surface plume model, or as a sophisticated surface-water column 3D model. Both options include all relevant processes, including the coastal retention and later release of the oil to the water column. The oil spill model is based on Eulerian-Lagrangian formulations, uses unstructured grid discretizations and is coupled with the 3D hydrodynamic model SELFE. A hindcast simulation of the Prestige oil spill disaster between 13 and 19 of November 2002 is presented here, based on the CEDRE information for ship route. The 3D hydrodynamics in the Iberian Atlantic shelf were determined with SELFE, forced by tides, wind and baroclinic gradients, while the 2D surface plume model was used to simulate the surface oil slick trajectory. The boundary and initial conditions for salinity and temperature were obtained from LEVITUS atlas while wind and wave data were retrieved from NCEP and WAVEWATCH III databases (NOAA, US). The oil plume trajectory validation was made against available satellite SAR images. The application shows the good numerical behavior of the model, its ability to predict the plume trajectory, and reveals its potential as a management tool. The application also highlights the importance of the accuracy of the forcings on the plume's pathway.

Erosion of the southern Gold Coast beaches (SE Queensland, Australia) was exacerbated after the extension of the Tweed River training walls in the early 1960s. To achieve the objective of restoring and maintaining beach amenity, significant nourishment works have been undertaken in Coolangatta Bay over the past 30 years. Particularly, under the Tweed River Entrance Sand Bypassing Project (TRESBP) since 1995, a number of nourishment campaigns and the implementation of a permanent sand bypass system in 2001 have resulted in significant changes of Coolangatta Bay morphology. The present case study investigates the influence of both wave climate and nourishment works on the area extending from the updrift Snapper Rocks area to downdrift Kirra Beach. SWAN spectral wave model is implemented at Coolangatta Bay area and forced by the global wave model WW3 to estimate wave forcing and the potential natural longshore drift entering in Coolangatta. Specific transects extracted from accurate bathymetric surveys are used to investigate and quantify Coolangatta Bay sedimentation for the period 1987

Erosion of the southern Gold Coast beaches (SE Queensland, Australia) was exacerbated after the extension of the Tweed River training walls in the early 1960s. To achieve the objective of restoring and maintaining beach amenity, significant nourishment works have been undertaken in Coolangatta Bay over the past 30 years. Particularly, under the Tweed River Entrance Sand Bypassing Project (TRESBP) since 1995, a number of nourishment campaigns and the implementation of a permanent sand bypass system in 2001 have resulted in significant changes of Coolangatta Bay morphology. The present case study investigates the influence of both wave climate and nourishment works on the area extending from the updrift Snapper Rocks area to downdrift Kirra Beach. SWAN spectral wave model is implemented at Coolangatta Bay area and forced by the global wave model WW3 to estimate wave forcing and the potential natural longshore drift entering in Coolangatta. Specific transects extracted from accurate bathymetric surveys are used to investigate and quantify Coolangatta Bay sedimentation for the period 1987

As waves travel and shoal towards a beach, their surface elevation becomes peaky (sharp crests) and asymmetric relative to the vertical. Within a wave period, the corresponding orbital velocity near the bottom shows a similar (time) variation and it is recognized that these nonlinearities are responsible for sediment transport. The resulting wave-induced bottom shear stresses are required for most sediment transport model computations. In this work,simple bottom shear stresses parameterisations for rough seabeds, under nonlinear waves, are analysed. Theeffects of the wave shape on the bottom shear stresses estimates is investigated by analysing a new set of experimental data, under accelerated skewed waves (SILVA et al., 2008). Results indicate a good agreementbetween all the formulations presented.

The hydrodynamics and alongshore sediment dynamics were evaluated on a meso-tidal estuarine beach, submitted to wind and vessel waves generated in an area of restricted fetch, not affected by oceanic waves. The beach morphology is characterised by two main features, a steep upper beach followed, seaward, by a low gradient terrace, both engaged in the surf zone depending on the tidal level. Sedimentologic surveys revealed the presence of coarser sand grains at the steep upper beach, finer sand grains at the low gradient terrace and a large geometrical spreading at the base of the beach face. The characterisation, based on a six-year wind data series, of the average annual wave climate in front of the beach, indicates a low energy environment where the estimated longshore transport is 14.5x103 m3.year-1, equally distributed in both directions. This study also concluded on the cross-shore distribution of the longshore sediment transport in the active part of the beach and on the contribution of each wind wave component to the longshore transport. Despite the important impact that the catamarans can have on cross-shore beach dynamics, their effect on the longshore transport is irrelevant

In this work, a video-monitoring system applicable to the study of beach morphodynamics was developed and applied to the DTM extraction of the intertidal zone of a fetch limited beach (Alfeite, Portugal). This low-cost system, intended to complement standard survey tools, has the additional benefit of enabling the continuousmonitoring of beach meso-scale process (spatial/temporal scales in the order of kilometers and years, respectively). The development of this system, based on terrestrial photogrammetric techniques, involved three main steps: i) camera calibration, where the internal camera parameters were determined in the laboratory using open-source software; ii) the development of image correction subroutines, which aimed to correct the relativelylarge image distortions induced by camera optics; this procedure revealed to be essential as the system was builtupon standard non-metric surveillance cameras; iii) the development of image rectification subroutines totransform oblique images into vertically equivalent images; this transformation was based on external camera orientation parameters obtained in the field through the surveying of ground control points. Alfeite beach DTM extraction was performed through the shoreline digitalization, in geo-referenced rectified images acquired every 10 min, during the flood. The overlapped set of shoreline curves, properly referred to a vertical datum by meansof tide measurements, characterized the intertidal beach morphology. The obtained results were compared with the ones acquired with classic survey techniques revealing very encouraging results; the overall vertical rms was 0.08 m with a maximum value of 0.15 m at 390 m of the camera.

This paper describes a site specific study of a low energy estuarine beach sheltered from oceanic waves which presents a medium term (decade) geomorphologic stability. However, extreme meteorological events, characterized by strong winds, generate episodes of retreat of the beach face, which, under restored wave conditions, recovers in the short term. Three process-based models (a wind wave generation propagation model, a 2D-V littoral drift model and a 2D-V cross-shore morphodynamics model), frequently applied in open coastal areas but never in such low energy environments, were applied. The longshore transport was difficult to measure in the field and thus the numerical estimate was not validated. However, its uncertainty (9.6-16.1 x103 m3.year-1) was tested based on a sensitivity analysis of three influential parameters. Field measurements of meteo-oceanographic data and profile changes during a storm episode allowed the simulation of the hydrodynamics and sediment transport, and finally the verification of the numerical profile. Despite the volume of sediment extracted from the beach face being in good agreement with the observations, about 10m3.m-1, the profile geometry was not: the numerical profile exhibits an erosion scarp located bellow the retreat observed and a bar, at the beach face base, which was not observed in the field (probably flattened by the uprush and downrush flows). The effect of the passage of a catamaran was also evaluated: it generates an erosion of sediment up to 0.04m3.m-1 (depending on the catamaran velocity). Due to the beach geomorphologic characteristics the sediment transport is higher at higher tidal levels.

A inundação de zonas costeiras pela combinação da maré com sobre-elevações de origem meteorológica pode ter consequências catastróficas, o que tem motivado o desenvolvimento de mapas de risco. Vários fatores estão a agravar o risco de inundações costeiras. Enquanto a migração das populações para perto da costa aumenta a vulnerabilidade das sociedades, as alterações climáticas aumentam a perigosidade destes eventos. Nomeadamente, a subida do nível médio do mar (NMM), e o crescimento da frequência e intensidade dos temporais nalgumas zonas do globo, aumentam a probabilidade de ocorrência de níveis elevados.O presente estudo visa determinar os níveis máximos no estuário do Tejo (Portugal) para diferentes períodos de retorno e diferentes cenários de subida do NMM, e compreender de que forma esta subida afeta a hidrodinâmica do estuário. O estudo combina um modelo hidrodinâmico com uma abordagem estatística inovadora. Para verificar se o assoreamento no estuário poderá contrariar os efeitos da subida do NMM, estimaram-se as taxas de sedimentação e erosão no último século. Esta análise indica que os sapais estão a assorear, enquanto os canais se estão a aprofundar.Os resultados mostram que a existência de um modo de ressonância com cerca de 8 horas, que amplifica seletivamente os constituintes semi-diurnos e quarto-diurnos, torna a resposta do estuário do Tejo à subida no NMM peculiar. Esta subida afeta a assimetria da maré, em particular porque os constituintes quarto-diurnos são mais amplificados do que os semi-diurnos. Este efeito reduz2significativamente a forte dominância de vazante do estuário. Pelo contrário, a evolução batimétrica do estuário tem um efeito menor na assimetria da maré. Acresce que a evolução morfológica tende globalmente a reforçar os efeitos da subida do NMM na assimetria de maré. Finalmente, a subida do NMM vai amplificar a ressonância no estuário do Tejo, exacerbando aí o aumento dos níveis extremos.Este fenómeno varia espacialmente ao longo do estuário, sendo mais intenso na zona superior.

Estimaram-se as condições de agitação marítima em 26 localizações, paralelas ao litoral deEspinho, através do modelo de geração e previsão de agitação marítima SWAN. O modelo foiforçado por dados estimados ao largo da Figueira da Foz para um período de 56 anos.Obtiveram-se, localmente, os parâmetros da agitação marítima que permitiram identificar edeterminar a intensidade energética (definida como a energia da onda integrada ao longo dedeterminado intervalo de tempo) associada a cada temporal marítimo. O critério de alturasignificativa de onda ser superior a 3 m foi o utilizado para a identificação de temporais aolongo da costa portuguesa. Em cada ponto definido ao longo do litoral de Espinho foideterminada a intensidade energética, duração de tempestade e altura significativa máximapara cada temporal. Estes foram classificados em cinco classes: Fraca, Moderada,Significativa, Severa e Extrema. Determinou-se a variação ao longo do trecho em estudo daintensidade energética média de todos os temporais.

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Due to the increase in human occupation, estuarine margins are particularly vulnerable to climate variability and climate change effects. From the adaptation and mitigation perspectives and in accordance with European Directives, knowledge-based predictions are needed to sustain planning and management tools. The project MorFeed - /Morphodynamic feedback of estuarine margins to climate change/,//presented in this paper, aims at improving the current understanding on estuarine margins response to climate change impacts. Considering different spatial scales of approach and the specific dynamic variability of estuarine margins, the final goal of the project is the development of a conceptual model for morphological response to climate change and anthropic intervention scenarios. The project followed a multidisciplinary and integrative approach, in which predictions of estuarine evolution were based not only on the knowledge of present day dynamics, but also on past evolutionary trends. The Tagus estuary, located in the western Portuguese coast, was considered an appropriate testbed for this approach due to its particular hidro-morphological characteristics and environmental and socio-economic relevance.

Due to the increase in human occupation, estuarine margins are particularly vulnerable to climate variability and climate change effects. From the adaptation and mitigation perspectives and in accordance with European Directives, knowledge-based predictions are needed to sustain planning and management tools. The project MorFeed - /Morphodynamic feedback of estuarine margins to climate change/,//presented in this paper, aims at improving the current understanding on estuarine margins response to climate change impacts. Considering different spatial scales of approach and the specific dynamic variability of estuarine margins, the final goal of the project is the development of a conceptual model for morphological response to climate change and anthropic intervention scenarios. The project followed a multidisciplinary and integrative approach, in which predictions of estuarine evolution were based not only on the knowledge of present day dynamics, but also on past evolutionary trends. The Tagus estuary, located in the western Portuguese coast, was considered an appropriate testbed for this approach due to its particular hidro-morphological characteristics and environmental and socio-economic relevance.

The accuracy of beach morphological response predictions in extreme conditions of waveenergy and surge is dependent on the hydrodynamic and geomorphologic field data qualityand quantity and on the methodology applied, either based on analytical or numericalmodels. In the present study, the issues of amount of field data and of adequacy of thenumerical model were analysed and discussed through the use of a case study, which wasCarcavelos beach.The sandy beach is located near Lisbon, in the west central coast of Portugal. It faces theAtlantic Ocean, therefore, it is exposed to a high energy average wave regime, despite itsevident seasonality. The hazard to which the beach is exposed and the proximity to adensely populated urban area make of the beach a sea land interface of high coastal risk.The study involved the following four main phases: i) the characterisation of the twenty fourhours duration storm event hydrodynamics (waves and surge) in front of the beach; ii) theevaluation of the morphologic impact of the event, through the comparison of theimmediately pre-storm and immediately after-storm beach profiles, surveyed in five beachlocations which provide a good coverage of the complete beach foreshore and backshore; iii)the characterisation of the pre-storm foreshore sediment grain size distribution, based on asurface sediment samplings analysis; and iv) the application of two process-based profilemodels, the Litprof and the Unibest-TC models, to simulate the morphodynamics of thecomplete active part of the profile, which includes the submerged part.The after-storm profiles and alongshore erosion volumes measured were compared with theones simulated numerically with both models. Here, we also evaluated and compared bothmodels results, analysed the disagreement between predictions and observations, andidentified the physical parameters that are required by the models and were not measured(the models default values were considered) and, due to that, added uncertainty into thepredictions.

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The Aveiro lagoon harbours one of the largest saltmarshes in Europe, with a significant role of ecological services,supporting at the same time several economic activities that might impact its water and ecological quality.Besides the pressures associated with human activities, the impacts of climate change in estuarine ecosystems arealso matter of concern worldwide. In this context, understanding the systems

O estuário do Tejo situa-se na costa ocidental portuguesa e estende-se por 80km para norte até Muge. A sul de Vila Franca, onde a largura aumenta consideravelmente, o estuário exibe vastas áreas intertidais: 44% (132km2) da superfície estuarina, sendo ~6% (19km2) ocupada por sapais. Estes ambientes são de extrema importância ecológica, mas muito sensíveis a alterações dos agentes forçadores e, devido ao regime de subida do nível médio do mar (NMM), torna-se importante compreender e antecipar a sua resposta morfo-sedimentar, contribuindo para melhorar a gestão e ordenamento das margens. O objectivo central deste estudo consiste em investigar respostas possíveis dos ambientes de sapal do estuário do Tejo face a diferentes cenários de elevação futura do NMM no horizonte temporal de 2100.

Abstract: Sediment is the basic material from whichestuaries, coastal lagoons and beach and barriercoasts are made. These are among the most dynamiclandforms on earth. Human activity has left its markon coastal systems in many ways and, especiallysince the industrial revolution, also on the sediment.Sediment management becomes imperative whensediment is too much, too little or too contaminated,and measures have to be taken to address economic,social and environmental concerns.In a context of weak economic growth anddecreasing public resources across much of Europe,to sustainably manage estuarine and coastalsediment, innovative and cost-efficient approachesand solutions are needed. However, there is noinnovation without research.

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The hydrodynamics and sediment dynamics of a low energy estuarine beach was analysed. The beach is subjected to local wind waves generated in an area of restricted fetch, wake waves generated by catamarans and a semi diurnal meso-tidal regime. Only storm events of short duration modify the beach profile, which, once the normal hydrodynamic conditions are restored, naturally recovers its initial shape. The beach is characterised by having a steep upper slope until mean sea level, followed, seaward, by a low gradient terrace, and a bimodal sediment distribution. To investigate the hydro sedimentologic beach behaviour, wind, topo-hydrographic and sedimentologic data were used as input and validation of process based numerical modelling. Wave generation and transformation in an area of restricted fetch, nearshore circulation, sediment transport and morphological evolution were simulated for average annual conditions and storm conditions. The statistical analysis of a six-year wind data series allowed to derive the average wind regime, based on which, the average annual wave regime and the average annual longshore sediment budget, 14.5x103 m3year-1, were calculated. The contribution of the individual components of the representative wave regime, discretised by directional sector and height class of incidence, was evaluated as well as the spatial distribution of the longshore sediment transport in the active part of the beach profile. The characteristics of the wave groups generated by the passage of catamarans at different speeds were estimated and their action on the beach morphology was simulated. Although when the catamarans travel at 20 knots speed the average annual wake wave energy dissipated at the beach is 2.5 times higher than the average annual wind wave energy, the erosion effect on the beach profile is still not relevant for the present traffic. In opposition, short duration storm events generate the formation of an erosion scarp at the upper part of the beach face. The numerical modelling of this phenomenon allowed to acknowledge on the protective effect that the low gradient terrace has on the beach face.

A presente tese tem como objetivo melhorar a gestão dos sistemas de distribuição de água através da utilização de métodos probabilísticos e estatísticos para analisar os dados de contadores inteligentes. Assim, é proposta uma metodologia para avaliação da incerteza em medições de caudal dinâmicas, baseada apenas nas próprias medições, no método de bootstrap por blocos e no ajustamento de um modelo adequado aos dados em estudo. De seguida, é desenvolvida uma metodologia de amostragem probabilística estratificada dos clientes para identificação de uma amostra representativa onde deverão ser instalados contadores inteligentes, sendo os estratos definidos pelos grupos obtidos numa análise de clusters baseada em dados de faturação. É ainda apresentada uma metodologia para a decomposição¸ de séries temporais de caudal em consumo autorizado, consumo não autorizado, roturas e perdas, utilizando técnicas de suavização de séries temporais e análise do espetro singular (singular sprectum analysis). Por último, são testados alguns métodos robustos e de analise funcional para deteção de valores anómalos em series temporais de caudal.

A compreensão dos impactes das alterações climáticas é fundamental para agestão a longo do prazo dos ecossistemas estuarinos. Esta compreensão sópoderá ser efectiva considerando a variabilidade climática natural e o papelrelativo das intervenções antropogénicas nestes ecossistemas. Assim, apresente dissertação analisa a influência das alterações climáticas e pressõesantropogénicas na qualidade da água e dinâmica ecológica da Ria de Aveirocom base numa abordagem integrada, que combinou a análise de sériestemporais dos últimos 25 anos e a modelação numérica de elevada resoluçãode cenários futuros de alterações climáticas e intervenções antropogénicas.A componente de modelação de qualidade da água e ecológica foi melhoradaa vários níveis. A análise de sensibilidade do modelo 3D hidrodinâmicoecológicoECO-SELFE aplicado à Ria de Aveiro e a revisão das constantes desemi-saturação para absorção de nutrientes pelo fitoplâncton contribuírampara a precisão e robustez das aplicações. A concentração do fitoplâncton foisignificativamente influenciada pelas taxas de crescimento do fitoplâncton e demortalidade e excreção do zooplâncton, e apresentou uma sensibilidadereduzida à variação das constantes de semi-saturação na gama identificadapara as diatomáceas. O acoplamento do ECO-SELFE a um modelo de campopróximo e a integração do ciclo do oxigénio aumentaram a sua capacidade derepresentação dos processos e das escalas espaciais relevantes. A validaçãodo ECO-SELFE foi realizada com base num conjunto de campanhasespecíficas realizadas no canal de Mira. Os padrões espaciais e temporaisobservados para as várias variáveis (clorofila a, nutrientes, oxigénio dissolvido,salinidade, temperatura da água, correntes e níveis) foram simulados comerros menores ou semelhantes aos obtidos neste tipo de aplicações.A análise dos padrões de variabilidade espacial e temporal da qualidade daágua e ecológica na Ria de Aveiro a diferentes escalas, efectuada com basenos dados históricos de 1985 a 2010 complementados pelas campanhasrealizadas, sugeriu uma influência combinada da variabilidade climática e dasacções antropogénicas. Os cenários futuros de alterações climáticas eintervenções antropogénicas simulados evidenciaram uma influência maissignificativa das alterações climáticas quando comparadas com os efeitos dasacções antropogénicas analisadas. As variações mais significativas sãoprevistas para os cenários de subida do nível do mar, seguidos dos cenáriosde alterações dos regimes hidrológicos, evidenciando o papel da circulação(maré e caudal fluvial) no estabelecimento da qualidade da água e dinâmicaecológica na laguna. Para os cenários de subida do nível do mar são previstosdecréscimos significativos da clorofila a e dos nutrientes a jusante e nas zonasintermédias do canal, e um aumento significativo da salinidade a montante.Estas alterações poderão favorecer modificações da composição e distribuiçãodas comunidades, afectando a cadeia alimentar e causando uma progressãopara montante de espécies marinhas. Os resultados sugerem ainda que osefeitos poderão ser mais significativos em estuários pouco profundos.

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A temática dos derrames de hidrocarbonetos continua a ser um assunto de extremaimportância dados os graves impactes continuadamente causados no meio marinho. O desenvolvimentode ferramentas para auxilio às autoridades responsáveis pela gestão costeirano combate e mitigação deste tipo de acidentes é prioritário nos planos estratégicos governamentais.Neste trabalho propõe-se um novo sistema integrado de análise de hidrocarbonetos desenvolvidopara aplicação a derrames em zonas costeiras, portuárias e oceânicas. Desenvolveuseuma nova metodologia baseada na sinergia da modelação numérica com a detecção remotapor satélites. Este sistema integra uma componente de modelação numérica flexível(2D/3D) e um novo algoritmo de segmentação de manchas de hidrocarbonetos observadasem imagens SAR. O algoritmo de detecção remota foi concebido para validar os resultadosdo sistema de modelos. O sistema de modelação baseia-se numa abordagem Euleriana-Lagrangeana para a resolução dos processos de evolução dos hidrocarbonetos, utilizandomalhas não-estruturadas para a representação dos domínios de estudo numa perspectivamulti-escala. O modelo de hidrocarbonetos inclui a maioria dos processos relevantes numderrame à superfície e na coluna de água e inclui um novo algoritmo para a retenção costeiraque considera a dinâmica intertidal para aplicação a domínios praias, lagunas e estuários.Realizaram-se diversas aplicações sintéticas e reais que comprovaram a precisão, robustez,fiabilidade e flexibilidade do sistema integrado, com custos computacionais e níveisde complexidade variável. A aplicação do sistema ao caso Prestige permitiu demonstrarque a sinergia entre a modelação numérica e a detecção remota é uma mais-valia para aprevisão de derrames de hidrocarbonetos no mar e serviu como base para uma análise qualitativada influência da precisão da previsão do vento como agente forçador.Futuramente, o sistema poderá ser aplicado na optimização de planos de contingência,sustentando análises de risco, e em sistemas de alerta e aviso para acidentes de poluição.

As margens estuarinas são constituídas por diversos elementos morfo-sedimentares, interdependentes entre si através de processos hidrodinâmicos, sedimentares, morfológicos e ecológicos. Estas características conferem à zona marginal do estuário uma sensibilidade particular a desequilíbrios entre o suporte morfológico e sedimentar e à acção dos agentes hidrodinâmicos, climáticos e antrópicos. A presente tese contempla o estudo da evolução morfo-sedimentar de margens estuarinas, procurando identificar as condições genéticas, caracterizar e quantificar os processos evolutivos actuais e passados. A área em estudo situa-se na margem sul do estuário interno do Tejo, entre Alcochete e Cacilhas, incluindo a restinga do Alfeite e a baía do Seixal. Efectuou-se a caracterização hidrodinâmica, morfológica e sedimentar da região em estudo e a avaliação dos padrões evolutivos à mesoescala e microescala. O estuário do Tejo é caracterizado por extensas zonas intertidais constituídas por rasos de maré e sapais. Estas áreas são alimentadas por sedimento em suspensão de origem fluvial, redistribuído pelas correntes de maré. Contrastando com o predomínio da sedimentação essencialmente silto-argilosa, surgem na margem sul praias e restingas de natureza arenosa que indicam a actividade de ondas de geração local. A morfologia da restinga do Alfeite evidencia a actividade de ondas, quer na sua formação, quer na sua evolução temporal. A sua instalação, há cerca de 500 anos atrás, terá correspondido a um episódio de mobilização considerável de material grosseiro proveniente de fontes sedimentares próximas - as rochas detríticas miocénicas e pliocénicas. A instalação da restinga proporcionou a manutenção de um ambiente de baixa energia, constituído por rasos de maré e sapais (baía do Seixal). O clima de agitação local está sobretudo relacionado com as nortadas, devido às maiores distâncias de fetch associadas e à intensidade mais elevada dos ventos daquele quadrante. O clima de agitação médio, obtido através de um modelo de previsão da agitação, caracteriza-se por alturas significativas de onda entre 0,2 e 0,4 m e por períodos de zero ascendente de 2 s. Em condições extremas a altura significativa de onda pode atingir 1,3 m. As ondas de geração local no estuário interno têm capacidade para causar a ressuspensão, transporte e acumulação de areias na margem sul, virada às direcções de fetch mais longo. Identificaram-se dois domínios principais de transporte longitudinal, envolvendo um caudal sólido semelhante de 20 000 - 30 000 m3/ano. Estes resultados concordam como as direcções de desenvolvimento e de progradação das restingas de areia. O padrão de dispersão de material sedimentar concorda também com a localização de fontes sedimentares potenciais. A restinga do Alfeite mostra uma variação morfológica evidente nos últimos 150 anos, dominada pelos processos de erosão e envolvendo a redução da área da praia em cerca de 15 ha. As modificações mais importantes ocorreram no período 1930-1979, com uma taxa de erosão média de 0,3 ha/ano, que coincidiu com intensa intervenção antrópica no sistema envolvendo alteração dos balanços sedimentares locais. As taxas de erosão obtidas através da análise evolutiva à mesoescala concordam com os volumes sedimentares avaliados para a deriva litoral local. O padrão evolutivo à microescala da praia do Alfeite mostra igualmente um comportamento particular de resposta a alterações hidrodinâmicas locais e à acção antrópica. O padrão de evolução à mesoescala e microescala da baía do Seixal sugere uma diferença acentuada entre o comportamento das zonas subtidal e intertidal inferior, com alguma dominância dos processos erosivos (com uma taxa de erosão média de 1-2 cm/ano), e o da zona supratidal com taxas de sedimentação relativamente elevadas (1cm/ano). O modelo morfo-sedimentar proposto para a baía do Seixal é essencialmente um modelo de redistribuição de sedimentos entre os rasos de maré superiores e sapais e os canais; resulta a selecção natural entre siltes grosseiros e areia e uma fracção mais fina com componente orgânica importante. À macroescala, o modelo evolutivo proposto será interrompido por episódios de entrada excepcional de material, principalmente através da rede hidrográfica local, associados a eventos extremos. As margens estuarinas são particularmente sensíveis a alterações extremas dos balanços sedimentares locais, sendo clara a interdependência entre a evolução morfológica e a interferência antrópica no sistema.

Os estuários são sistemas ricos em recursos naturais e de grande fragilidade ecológica. O seu uso, como suporte de múltiplas actividades, faz com que seja necessário definir planos de gestão destinados a compatibilizar tais utilizações, salvaguardando o equilíbrio ecológico e a saúde pública. Reviram-se os conceitos de estuário, suas características e tipos. Identificaram-se princípios e metodologias para a sua gestão, que requerem o uso de instrumentos, dentre os quais são objecto central do presente estudo os sistemas de indicadores ambientais. O modelo de enquadramento adoptado foi o de Pressão Estado Resposta. As aplicações do conceito de indicador ambiental a estuários são recentes e limitadas, devido à especificidade destes sistemas, em particular, da coexistência de escalas de tempo distintas no controlo dos processos hidrodinâmicos e das suas características bio-geo-químicas. A caracterização ambiental dum estuário requer a aplicação de uma metodologia que inclui, além de informação de contexto, a identificação das zonas homogéneas, definidas com base em critérios morfológicos, de salinidade e de gestão, e das escalas de tempo relevantes, para definir os domínios de integração espacial e temporal das variáveis observadas, que conduzem aos valores significativos. A estes é removida a dimensão, sendo normalizados por aplicação de operadores algébricos e gráficos, inferindo-se a conformidade com a qualidade ambiental a partir dos valores dos indicadores normalizados. A metodologia inclui a definição de classes de qualidade. A metodologia foi ensaiada no estuário do Tejo. A sua caracterização, cobrindo as temáticas da eutrofização e estado de oxigenação, da qualidade estética e da contaminação bacteriológica e por xenobióticos, demonstrou a exequibilidade do método. Os resultados, se bem que de interesse relativo por recorrerem a dados heterogéneos e, por vezes, sem actualidade, revelam um estuário com baixa susceptibilidade à poluição, onde o incumprimento das normas de emissão pelas fontes poluentes era dominante. Porém, o estado do estuário revelou-se, em grande parte da sua extensão, bom ou excelente relativamente a alguns parâmetros, embora tenham sido identificadas situações de não conformidade. A metodologia é, assim, exequível, mesmo quando aplicada a um estuário complexo como o Tejo, e capaz de diferenciar situações de qualidade ambiental distintas. Constitui um instrumento de gestão útil para o apoio ao planeamento de programas de monitorização, para a sistematização da informação e para a comunicação clara com os responsáveis pelas decisões e com o público.

Eulerian-Lagrangian methods (ELMs) are increasingly used to simulate groundwater and surface water transport and water quality, largely due to their ability to use large time steps and to formally decouple processes with distinct time scales. Yet, two severe limitations remain: (1) ELMs do not inherently conserve mass, AND (2) in multiple dimensions, robust implementations of "higher-order" ELMs are expensive. Our research focused on the understanding of the main sources of errors in ELMs. We analyzed systematically the impact and relative importance of tracking errors, integration errors and forcing by non-conservative flow fields, on measures of mass conservation, overall accuracy and stability. From this analysis, we propose new methodologies and general guidelines towards mass conservative, globally accurate and stable multi- dimensional ELM transport simulations in estuarine and coastal regions. We performed a pioneering study of the influence of tracking errors, demonstrating their very strong negative impact on mass conservation, overall accuracy and stability. Low-order tracking methods are strongly discouraged in the presence of complex flow fields, typical of estuaries, because they are too inaccurate to allow overall mass balance and phase preservation, and they lead to potential instability. We show that the evaluation of the integrals at the feet of the characteristic lines is an important source of mass and overall errors, which can be controlled through grid refinement. To avoid such errors, we develop a new method that combines the flexibility and local mass properties of control volume finite element methods (CVFE), with a new quadrature integration technique. Subdivision quadrature overcomes stability constrains of traditional quadratures and allows for easy implementation in multiple dimensions. We find subdivision quadrature CVFE-ELMs to be an attractive alternative to current finite element ELMs in estuaries and coasts. Non-conservative flow fields are the primary concern for estuarine and coastal applications because ELMs cannot mitigate their effect without jeopardizing overall accuracy. We found bathymetric gradients and complex geometry to be the main sources for flow mass errors, and grid refinement to be inadequate to eliminate them. Consequently, mass imbalances in ELM solutions cannot be removed by grid refinement. Control volume finite elements and conservative-equation-based formulations are equally ineffective in the presence of a non-conservative flow. The problem needs to be addressed at the source, i.e., the circulation models that generate the flows. A detailed analysis of residence times illustrates the importance of improving numerical models, and provides new insights on the variability of residence times in estuarine systems. A new methodology is proposed, which emphasizes the importance of local analysis of residence times to understand the fluxing properties of a complex system, while providing an alternative approach to traditional bulk evaluations of residence times. Key Words: Flow mass conservation. Transport Mass conservation. Transport equation. Eulerian-Lagrangian methods. Finite Volumes. Finite elements. Accuracy Analysis. Residence Times.

The thesis deals with the numerical modelling of random wave propagation in the nearshore region. The mathematical modelling is based on the mild - slope equation.The mild - slope equation has been considered in a linear elliptic form in order to take into account wave refraction, diffraction, and reflections, and therefore to allow for the applicability of the model without constraints even to areas like harbours where reflections play an important role. Owing to the fact that we are dealing with a boundary value problem, the mathematical methods for solving the linear system of equations generated after discretising the governing equation and the boundary conditions imposed are fundamental to developing an efficient numerical model. A range of mathematical methods for solving the linear elliptic form of the mild-slope equation as well as a range of appropriate radiation boundary conditions are analysed, implemented and compared. Comparisons with available results, experimental and numerical, for different cases of study, validate the model for monochromatic waves.To overcome the difficulty of applying the linear elliptic model over large areas, a multigrid technique was deployed in a numerical model of a non-linear transformed form of the mild-slope equation in order to accelerate convergence. This technique was applied to a range of iterative solvers and satisfactory results were obtained.A numerical model of a hyperbolic form of the mild-slope equation, an initial value problem, was also developed and extended in order to test a range of radiation boundary conditions. Results show that "sponge layers" provide the best means of dealing with radiation type boundary conditions.The elliptic model was then further developed by extending it to random waves using the concept of superposition of spectral components. The importance of frequency and directional spreading was investigated. Based on the energy balance equation the phenomenon of breaking of irregular waves in the surf zone was incorporated, using two different approaches, in the model which was applied to cases that had been experimentally studied before. The results from this part of the work are unique and demonstrate the practical usefulness of the model.

STERNA é um sistema de modelos matemáticos para a simulação de processos hidrodinâmicos e de qualidade da água em estuários não-estratificados. Este sistema é constituído pelo modelo hidrodinâmico MOHID, previamente existente, e por um modelo de transporte e por um conjunto de módulos de qualidade da água, desenvolvidos no decurso deste estudo. As equações de conservação da massa e de conservação da quantidade de movimento, do modelo hidrodinâmico, e a equação de advecção-difusão, do modelo de transporte, são resolvidas pelo método das diferenças finitas, a partir de uma formulação bidimensional (2D), integrada na vertical.Descreve-se a aplicação do sistema STERNA ao estuário do Tejo. Os resultados são comparados com observações efectuadas em campanhas do "Estudo Ambiental do Estuário do Tejo". Estas observações compreendem: a) séries temporais de correntes, salinidade, temperatura e sedimentos em suspensão, com cerca de 24 horas de duração; b) séries de valores mensais de salinidade, temperatura, clorofila-a, fosfato, amónia, nitrato, CBO e oxigénio dissolvido, com 4 anos de duração. Verifica-se, para a generalidade dos parâmetros, uma concordância satisfatória entre observações e resultados dos modelos.Os dados de campo e o sistema de modelos proposto servem de suporte a uma análise das características do ambiente no estuário do Tejo. Discutem-se, em particular: as trocas de maré entre o estuário e o exterior; a importância da estratificação de densidade; os fluxos de calor através da superfície; os mecanismos de formação da zona de turvação máxima; os factores responsáveis pela limitação da produção primária fitoplanctónica; os processos envolvidos no ciclo do fósforo e do azoto; e a ocorrência de défices de oxigénio. Conclui-se pela importância de uma abordagem integrada no estudo dos processos estuarinos.Palavras-chave: Modelos matemáticos; método das diferenças finitas; hidrodinâmica de estuários; qualidade da água; estuário do Tejo.

Although three-dimensional (3D) modeling of coastal and estuarine flows is becoming common, several limitations remain related to our ability both to describe and to numerically simulate the correct physics. Two key limitations concern vertical resolution: the lack of flexibility of current methods for vertical discretization prevents the optimal use of computational resources, and guidelines for vertical nodal placement are not available.The major contribution of this thesis is the development, analysis and test of an approach that allows for an unprecedented flexibility in the vertical refinement of the domain. This approach, which we refer to as localized sigma coordinates (LSC), is the first to allow the number of nodes per vertical to vary horizontaly, and can therefore be considered a natural extension to the use of unstructured grids in the horizontal.To take advantege of the LSC, we perform the first systematic study for the vertical discretization in barotropic tidal flow simulations. The resulting optimal grid can reduce the errors relative to a uniform grid by over an order of magnitude and compares favorably with non-uniform grids previously proposed. A criterion to guide the horizontal distribution of the total number of nodes is proposed and discussed in the context of simple one- and two-dimensional models, and is then extended to three dimensions. Accounting for advection in three dimenions forces modifications to the criterion, but the overall concept proved to be useful: using a variable number of nodes per vertical reduces the maximum velocity errors by a factor of two.As part of our analysis of the LSC, we investigate the evaluation of the horizontal gradients in sigma-coordinate shallow water models. We show that horizontal gradients should be computed in sigma rather than z-coordinates, and that the so-called hydrostatic inconsistency typically associated with sigma coordinates does not correspond to a numerical inconsistency. The large errors associated with the evaluation of horizontal gradients can be by-passed through appropriate horizontal resolution, and a procedure to define this resolution is proposed based on results from a truncation error analysis.An application to the Tagus estuary demonstrates the enhanced accuracy provided by the LSC, and provides new insights into the estuarys 3D barotropic circulation. Strong residual currents (depth-averaged eulerian residual velocities of up to 0.5 m/s) are generated by advective accelerations and have a major impact on the mixing characteristics at the mouth of the estuary. The assymetry between ebbing and flooding promotes exchanges between marine and estuarine waters, while he interaction between tidal and residual flows leads to strong chaotic stirring.The good performance of the LSC in a complex application establishes this method as an attractive alternative to the traditional sigma- and z-coordinates.

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