Papers
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Defining suitable Safe System projects: The experience of the SaferAfrica project in five African countries
When dealing with road safety in Africa, one should bear in mind that road safety problems need to be seen in their context as the solutions proposed to address them. While it is relevant to consider international good practices, African stakeholders should become owners of the interventions addressing their problems and take the responsibility for developing and implementing the appropriate solutions, taking advantage of suitable technical assistance, if needed. Based on these considerations, in this paper, a presentation is made of the process used in the European research project SaferAfrica to define suitable Safe System projects in Africa. This project aims at supporting policymakers and stakeholders with evidence on critical risk factors, related actions, and good practices drawn from high-quality data and knowledge. In the project, road safety and traffic management capacity reviews at the country level were carried out in five countries (Cameroon, Burkina Faso, Tunisia, Kenya, and South Africa), following the World Bank guidelines. After conducting such a capacity review, these guidelines recommend the preparation and implementation of Safe System projects,
Year: 2021
Number Pages:
14.
Author(s): Schermers, G.; Cardoso, J. L.; Usami , D.; Persia, L.; Gonzalez-Hernandez, B.; Kunsoan, N.; Meta, E.; Saporito, M.; Carnis, L.; Yerpez, J.; Bouhamed, N.; Kluppels, L.; Vandemeulebroek, F.
: IATSS Research
Editor: Elsevier Ltd.
Volume:
316.
Keywords: Políticas de transportes; Gestão de segurança; Visão zero; Sistema seguro; Segurança rodoviária
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Investigation of injury severities in single-vehicle crashes in North Carolina using mixed logit models
Introduction: Roadway departure (RwD) crashes, comprising run-off-road (ROR) and cross- median/centerline head-on collisions, are one of the most lethal crash types. According to the FHWA, between 2015 and 2017, an average of 52 percent of motor vehicle traffic fatalities occurred each year due to roadway departure crashes. An avoidance maneuver, inattention or fatigue, or traveling too fast with respect to weather or geometric road conditions are among the most common reasons a driver leaves the travel lane. Roadway and roadside geometric design features such as clear zones play a significant role in whether human error results in a crash.in a crash.Method: In this we used mixed-logit models to investigate the contributing factors on injury severity of single-vehicle ROR crashes. To that end, we obtained five years
Year: 2021
Number Pages:
161-169.
Author(s): Roque, C. A.; Jalayer, M.; Hasan, A.S
: Journal of Safety Research
Editor: Elsevier
Volume:
Volume 77.
Keywords: Crash severity model; Mixed logit model; Run-off-road; Roadway departure
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Shifting from Private to Public Transport using Duration-Based Modeling of a School-Based Intervention
School commuting with public transportation (PT) and shifting away from private cars remains a challenge, especially for transport planners. From behavioral and cultural viewpoints, car dependence has not yet been reversed in many cities. Actions to promote the shift to PT should be multidisciplinary and multi-instrumental to increase PT adoption and achieve more sustainable mobility. There is a lack of strategic alignment between the different stakeholders involved in school commuting of children (parents, school, PT operators) and empirical studies sustaining the effectiveness of actions to shift away from the car. Moreover, PT behavioral aspects are still poorly researched from a marketing perspective. This research aims to help fill the gap by implementing actions related to the 4Ps of the marketing mix (product, place, price, promotion). Ten schools in the Lisbon Metropolitan Area were involved in those actions and then surveyed (1,760 survey participants) to evaluate the impact on their behavioral change, that is, to start going to school with PT. The study explores the impact of a set of marketing events on the time duration before children shift to PT when commuting to school, with a hazard-based duration model. Results suggest that to promote school commuting with PT, it is necessary to characterize the school community before commencing any mobility-oriented intervention, particularly concerning sociodemographic attributes and mobility patterns. These are critical information to design marketing actions better and to adapt and improve the quality of PT vehicles and services that operate to and from schools.
Year: 2020
Number Pages:
540
Author(s): Motta Queiroz, M.; Moura, F.; Roque, C. A.
: Transportation Research Record
Editor: SAGE
Volume:
2674(7).
Keywords: Lisbon Metropolitan Area; School commuting; 4Ps of Marketing Mix; Hazard-Based Duration Model
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Asessing multimodal mobility trends using heterogeneous data sources: a case study for supporting sustainable mobility policy goals within the Algarve region
This paper is built around a research project developed with the support of the Regional Planning Authority of the Algarve Region in Portugal which assessed mobility patterns covering all modes of transport using heterogeneous data sources (time-series data). Data mining techniques helped to identify limitations in some data sets. The econometric analysis showed that integrated autoregressive models and moving averages for series with seasonality were successful in the prediction of passenger flows using time-series data gathered by the regional authority from transport operators and other entities. Results from the analysis are useful to support a strategy to reverse current trends on continued car growth (along with public transport decrease) and to devise policy measures to enable a sustainable mobility path towards decarbonisation and social equity goals until 2030.
Year: 2019
Number Pages:
12p.
Author(s): Arsénio, E.; Silva, S.; Pereira, H.; Domingues, A.
Editor: Elsevier
Keywords: Big data; Decarbonisation; Multimodal mobility; Trend analysis; Passenger flow prediction models; Sustainable mobility
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Topic analysis of Road safety inspections using latent dirichlet allocation: A case study of roadside safety in Irish main roads
Under the Safe System framework, Road Authorities have a responsibility to deliver inherently safe roads and streets. Addressing this problem depends on knowledge of the road network safety conditions and the number of funds available for new road safety interventions. It also requires the prioritization of the various interventions that may generate benefits, increasing safety, while ensuring that reasonable steps are taken to remedy the deficiencies detected within a reasonable timeframe. In this context, Road Safety Inspections (RSI) are a proactive tool for identifying safety issues, consisting of a regular, systematic, on-site inspection of existing roads, covering the whole road network, carried out by trained safety expert teams.This paper aims to describe how topic modelling can be effectively used to identify co-occurrence patterns of attributes related to the run-off-road crashes, as well as the corresponding patterns of road safety interventions, as described in the RSI reports. We apply latent Dirichlet allocation (LDA), a widespread method for fitting a topic model, to analyse the topics mentioned in RSI reports, divided into two groups: problems found; and proposed solutions. For this study, 54 RSI gathered over six years (2012 - 2017) were analysed, covering 4011 km of Irish roads.The results indicate that important keywords relating to the
Year: 2019
Number Pages:
336-349.
Author(s): Roque, C. A.; Cardoso, J. L.; Connell, Tomas; Schermers, G.; Weber, R.
: Accident Analysis and Prevention
Editor: Elsevier
Volume:
Volume 131.
Keywords: Roadside safety; Road Safety Inspection; Text mining; Topic Modeling; Latent Dirichlet allocation
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Improving roadside design policies for safety enhancement using hazard-based duration modeling
Roadway departure (RwD) crashes, comprising run-off-road (ROR) and cross-median/centerline head-on collisions, are one of the most lethal crash types. Nationwide, from 2014 to 2016, annual RwD crashes accounted for 53% of all motor vehicle traffic fatalities. Several factors may cause a driver leave the travel lane, including an avoidance maneuver and inattention or fatigue. Roadway and roadside geometric design features (e.g., lane widths and clear zones) play a significant role in whether human error results in a crash. In this paper, we present a hazard-based duration model to investigate the distance traveled by an errant vehicle in a run-off-road crash, the stopping hazard rates, and associated risk factors. For this study, we obtained five years' (2010
Year: 2018
Number Pages:
165-173pp..
Author(s): Roque, C. A.; Jalayer, M.
: Accident Analysis and Prevention
Editor: Elsevier
Volume:
120.
Keywords: Forgiving roadside; Roadside design; Cox model; Run-off-road crash; Hazard-based duration model
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Portuguese mainland road network safety performance indicator
Stepping away from traditional crash-based road safety measurements, several safety performance indicators (SPI) have been proposed in the past few years. SPI can incorporate quantitative and qualitative information on specific aspects that are known to have influence in the safety levels and, not only measure the influence of various safety interventions but also enable comparisons between different road systems. This paper presents the results of the application of a road network SPI to the entire Portuguese road network. This SPI aims at evaluating at the network level, if the connections between urban centres within a region are made by the adequate type of roads regarding generic safety criteria. To this end, the connections to be assessed were classified into pre-defined theoretical safety classes, based on the population of the connected urban centres. Then, the observed safety class of these connections was assessed according to the characteristics of their cross-section and associated road environment of the existing connection between the two urban centres. If the observed class is ensured by a road of higher or equal class than the pre-defined theoretical level in all its extension, the link is considered to be of the appropriate class. For each connection, the results of its evaluation are expressed as a binary value: 0 when the class is not appropriate; and 1 when it is appropriate. The evaluation results are weighted by the road length and aggregated by connection class and throughout the whole road network. The results show a satisfactory network configuration with an SPI of 94% connections with class equal to or higher than the adequate for the type of connection between urban centres they established. The above insights can help in the identification of potential operational inconsistencies that may require safety-related interventions and used for international benchmarks against existing SPI evaluations.
Year: 2018
Number Pages:
416-422pp.
Author(s): Vieira Gomes, S.; Cardoso, J. L.; Lima Azevedo, C.
: Case Studies on Transport Policy
Editor: ELSEVIER
Volume:
Volume 6, Issue 3.
Keywords: Road network; Spatial analysis; Geographic information system; Safety performance indicator
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Assessing intermodal freight transport scenarios bringing the perspective of key stakeholders
This paper extends the previous R&D project on the evaluation of intermodal freight transport scenarios (seamless multimodal logistic chains) centered in the Port of Sines in Portugal where a set of alternative investment options were compared: (i) maritime
Year: 2017
Number Pages:
900-915pp.
Author(s): Prata, J.; Arsénio, E.
: Transportation Research Procedia
Editor: Elsevier
Volume:
25C.
Keywords: Corporate social responsability; CO2 emissons; Shipping speed; Freight transport costs; Intermodal transport
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Assessing the market potential of electric bicycles and ICT for low carbon school travel: a case study in the smart city of Águeda
Electric bikes (e-bikes) may help in transport decarbonisation in European cities. To fully assess the market potential of e-bikes, further research is needed to understand users
Year: 2017
Number Pages:
12p.
Author(s): Arsénio, E.; Dias, J.; Azeredo Lopes, S.; Pereira, H.
: Transportation Research Procedia
Editor: Elsevier
Keywords: Sustainable urban mobility; Low carbon transport; Electric bicycles; Cycling to school
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Sustainable urban mobility plans:bridging climate change and equity targets?
The European Commission (EC) introduced the concept of Sustainable Urban Mobility Plans (SUMPs) as a new planning paradigm with a focus on people
Year: 2016
Number Pages:
22p.
Author(s): Arsénio, E.; Martens, K.; Di Ciommo, F.
: Research in Transportation Economics
Editor: Elsevier
Volume:
462.
Keywords: Urban transport policy; Equity in transport; Sustainable urban mobility plans; Climate change
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Comunicação
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The traffic noise influence in the housing market. A case study for Lisbon
The objective of this paper is to provide an empirical analysis of the influence of traffic noise has on the housing market. Traffic noise can be considered as an environmental externality from road transport system. As so, it affects the value that people are willing to pay for their houses. The value of this effect has already been studied by some authors, with Stated Preference-choice (SP-choice) methods, the hedonic pricing model, or others. The approach used in this study combines traditional methods, namely linear modelling techniques used for quantifying the effect on housing prices fluctuation, with newer methods as the spatial analysis associate d to Geographical Information Systems. There are obvious advantages by using GIS asadding spatial analytical capabilities in terms of increasing its functionality and meeting a demand for systems that do something beyond storing, retrieving and displaying large amounts of information. Thisstudy was developed for the city of Lisbon, Portugal. A geographical database was created combining information from the Census, on the housing characteristics, with renting and sales activities. This study applies two different techniques to identify the relation between traffic noise and the variation on the housing value in Lisbon, and aims to contribute to the scientific knowledge of housing market in Lisbon, with detailed and accurate information on the factors affecting its variation.
Year: 2014
Author(s): Vieira Gomes, S.
Editor: 21ª European Real Estate Society Annual Conference
Keywords: Linear modelling techniques; Housing market; Traffic noise; GIS
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Avaliação da influência da infraestrutura na segurança rodoviária em meio urbano
Neste artigo são apresentadas ferramentas destinadas ao planeamento e gestão das redes viárias que consideram explicitamente a segurança dos utentes vulneráveis. Essas ferramentas referem-se à criação de umabase de dados georreferenciada dos acidentes rodoviários ocorridos em Lisboa entre 2004 e 2007, que permitiu a definição de mapas digitais, com possibilidade de uma grande diversidade de consultas; e ao desenvolvimento de modelos de estimativa de frequência de acidentes para redes urbanas, em função de características do elemento rodoviário, que incorporam dados de exposição de utentes vulneráveis de forma a melhorar a capacidade de estimativa da sinistralidade em redes urbanas.
Year: 2013
Number Pages:
10.
Author(s): Vieira Gomes, S.
Keywords: Segmentos urbanos; Intersecções urbanas; Acidentes rodoviários; Modelos de estimativa de frequência de acidentes; Sig
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Avaliação do impacte sobre a segurança rodoviária de planos de segurança municipais
Neste artigo é apresentado o estudo da avaliação do impacte sobre a segurança rodoviária da implementação de planos de segurança municipais. Este estudo foi desenvolvido num concelho piloto, que já possuía um plano municipal de segurança rodoviária. O seu objectivo centrou-se na avaliação do impacte do conjunto deintervenções de segurança rodoviária previstas para a rede viária do concelho piloto, com a finalidade de ajuizar acerca da viabilidade dos objectivos visados (em termos de indicadores quantitativos) e apoiar as decisões acerca da prioridade e intensidade a atribuir a cada intervenção programada.
Year: 2013
Number Pages:
10.
Author(s): Vieira Gomes, S.; Cardoso, J. L.
Keywords: Medidas correctivas; Acidentes rodoviários; Segurança rodoviária; Planos de segurança municipais
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Caracterização da flutuação do tráfego na cidade de Lisboa
estudos rodoviários. Os custos associados às contagens manuais ou automáticas inviabilizam muitas vezes a adaptação destas técnicas para a caracterização do tráfego, pelo que o recurso a estimativas do valor de Tráfego Médio Diário Anual (TMDA) reveste-se de particular interesse. Este trabalho apresenta uma metodologia expedita para estimar o TMDA na rede viária urbana da cidade de Lisboa através do estabelecimento de factores de ajustamento horários, diários e mensais, com base em dados de tráfego obtidos a partir de sistemas de gestãode tráfego disponíveis na cidade (GERTRUDE e SICIT).
Year: 2013
Number Pages:
10.
Author(s): Brito, J.; Vieira Gomes, S.; Fontul, S.
Keywords: Rede viária urbana de lisboa; Factores de ajustamento; Estimação tmda; Caracterização do tráfego
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How transport policies have been influenced by transport externalities' studies? a comparison study between Portugal and Poland
Transport externalities are an important issue concerning both academic researchers and policy makers. One of the strategic goals of the EU Transport policy, as stated in the Transport White Paper
Year: 2013
Number Pages:
18.
Author(s): Arsénio, E.; Pontes, J.
Editor: AET and contributors
Keywords: Transport policy; Externalities; Transport economics; Cost-benefit analysis
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Moving towards the sustainable city? The role of electric vehicles, renewable energy and energy efficiency
Integrated energy and urban mobility systems are key components for achieving cities
Year: 2013
Number Pages:
12.
Author(s): Prata, J.; Arsénio, E.; Pontes, J.
Editor: Wessex Institute of Technology Press
Keywords: Urban metabolism; City sustainability; Co2 emissions; Transport policy and planning; Energy efficiency; Emerging technologies (electric vehicles)
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Port of Sines Terminal XXI: Which Development Scenarios?
The Port of Sines
Year: 2013
Number Pages:
17.
Author(s): Tao, M.; Ferreira, F.; Arsénio, E.
Editor: AET and contributors
Keywords: Sustainable development; Postpanamax; Panama canal; Rail freight; Freight and logistics; Port of sines; Intermodality; Transport planning and policy
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Impact of multiple imputation of missing socio-economic data in discrete choice analysis
This paper aims to assess the impact of missing income data on estimates of the accuracy of marginal costs of aviation noise externalities, namely missing socio-economic attributes which are normally used to segment the sample for policy purposes. The experimental approach comprised a comparison between the coefficient parameter estimates obtained by fitting multinomial logit models using econometric software to both the complete data set and to data sets where several amounts of income data were replaced by missing values (5%, 10%, 25% and 50%). The latter data sets were analysed employing the two most common methods for missingness: the LD and the Multiple Imputation (MI) method using the expectation-maximization Bayesian bootstrapping algorithm within the Amelia II software program. The most appropriate number of imputations and the set of variables used to obtain the imputations with the MI approach are further investigated. The comparisons will be made through measures of accuracy of parameter estimates and of the combined model.
Year: 2012
Number Pages:
23pp.
Author(s): Arsénio, E.; Azeredo Lopes, S.
Editor: AET and contributors
Keywords: Multiple imputation; Missing income data; Discrete-choice; Aviation externalities
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The influence of the infrastructure characteristics in urban road accidents occurence
The knowledge of factors affecting accident occurrence has been a relevant research area for many decades due to enormous costs to society of road accidents. In Portugal, the developments in this area have focused mainly on inter-urban roads. Urban areas, which are characterized by high percentages of injury accidents (about 69% of the total between 2004 and 2008), require priority attention.This paper summarizes the result of a study which contributes to the improvement of road safety in urban areas, through the creation of tools that can be used in intervention methods in the planning and management of road networks.The first tool relates the creation of a geocoded database of road accident occurred in Lisbon between 2004 and 2007, which allowed the definition of digital maps, with the possibility of a wide range of consultations and crossing of information.The second tool concerns the development of models to estimate the frequency of accidents on urban networks, according to different disagregations: according to the road element: at intersections (three legs, four legs and roundabouts) and in segments; and according to the inclusion of explanatory variables related to the road environment: simplified (only with the exposure variables) and global (with all potential explanatory variables). These two tools can be used directly in the management of road infrastructure providing entities with expertise in road safety with accurate and detailed information about the factors involved in accidents in urban areas and their spatial distribution.
Year: 2012
Author(s): Vieira Gomes, S.
Editor: Transport Research Arena
Keywords: Road network; Spatial analysis; GIS; Accident prediction models
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The contribution of road infrastructure safety interventions to registered safety improvements in the last decade in Portugal
N/A
Year: 2011
Number Pages:
3.
Author(s): Cardoso, J. L.
Editor: Generalna Dyrekcja Drog Krajowych i Autostrad
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Books
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The effect of low cost engineering measures and enforcement on driver behaviour and safety on single carriageway interurban trunk roads. In Advances in Human Aspects of Road and Rail Transportation.
The application of low-cost road and traffic engineering measures (LCEM) is a cost-effective method for reducing accidents and their consequences. Empirical evidence shows that enforcement contributes to improvements on driving behaviour and road safety; however, results from reducing enforcement are seldom presented.In this paper a presentation is made of the impact LCEM and changes in enforcement intensity had on selected driving behaviour variables and safety levels on a 170 km single carriageway trunk road. LCEM were implemented on the road, followed a year later by the commitment of exceptionally intense and severe law enforcement and, after two years, its relaxation. The impacts of these safety interventions were evaluated through observational before-after studies. The expected number of injury accidents was reduced by 41% (less 75% fatalities), when considering the combined effect of LCEM and enforcement; suppression of strict enforcement was related to a 20% increase in the number of fatalities.
Year: 2012
Number Pages:
10.
Author(s): Cardoso, J. L.
Editor: CRC Press Taylor & Francis Group
Keywords: Driving behaviour; Low cost measures; Safety effects
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Application of a gap-graded asphalt rubber wearing course in the rehabilitation of the pavement of a stretch of the national road EN1 located in the north of Portugal - Field and laboratory case study
This case study refers to a successful application of an asphalt rubber wearing course in the frame ofthe rehabilitation of the pavement of the National Road EN 1 between Landiosa and Picoto.It concerns asphalt rubber manufactured by the wet process, using gap-graded aggregates. / O presente caso de estudo refere-se à aplicação bem sucedida de misturas com betume modificadocom borracha reciclada de pneus em camada de desgaste, no âmbito das obras de reabilitação dopavimento da estrada nacional EN 1, entre Landiosa e Picoto.Diz respeito, em particular, ao fabrico, por via húmida, de mistura betuminosa com borrachautilizando agregados com granulometria descontínua.
Year: 2010
Number Pages:
20pp.
Author(s): Batista, F. A.; Antunes, M. L.
Editor: LNEC
Volume:
NS 124
Keywords: Laboratory test; In situ test; National road; Rubber; Recycled materials; Road pavement rehabilitation; Asphaltic road pavement; Asphalt; Pt
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Modos Suaves, Manual de Boas Práticas para uma Mobilidade Sustentável
Manual de boas práticas para uma mobilidade sustentável, no âmbito do projecto nacional "Mobilidade Sustentável" coordenado pela Agência portuguesa do Ambiente (Vol. II). O projecto Mobilidade Sustentável envolveu uma rede de 15 centros de investigação/universidades do país, incluindo o LNEC.
Year: 2010
Number Pages:
274p..
Author(s): Arsénio, E.; Viegas, F.
Editor: Agência Portuguesa do Ambiente (APA)
Volume:
Vol. II.
Keywords: Boas práticas; Portugal; Municípios; Planos de mobilidade; Mobilidade sustentável
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Projecto Mobilidade Sustentável. Concepção, Principais Conclusões e Recomendações
Nesta publicação apresentam-se os aspectos relativos à concepção do projecto Mobilidade Sustentável, principais conclusões e recomendações.
Year: 2010
Number Pages:
80p..
Author(s): Arsénio, E.; Viegas, F.
Editor: Agência Portuguesa do Ambiente (APA)
Volume:
Volume I.
Keywords: Planeamento de transportes; Mobilidade sustentável
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Capítulo de Livro
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Modelos de Duração Aplicados à Engenharia de Transportes
O tempo decorrido (ou a distância percorrida) até à ocorrência de um evento, ou a duração do mesmo, podem ser analisados através de modelos de duração baseados em risco (hazard-based duration models), os quais têm sido amplamente utilizados em campos como a medicina, as ciências sociais e a engenharia industrial. Contudo, são relativamente escassos os estudos que aplicaram modelos de duração à engenharia de transportes.Este capítulo inclui dois exemplos de aplicação de modelos de duração à investigação em engenharia de transportes. O primeiro diz respeito às distâncias percorridas por veículos descontrolados em despistes ocorridos na Carolina do Norte (E.U.A.). O segundo refere-se ao tempo decorrido até à transferência modal nas deslocações para a escola de um conjunto de alunos de 162 turmas de 51 escolas do ensino básico em Portugal.
Year: 2021
Number Pages:
109-124.
Author(s): Roque, C. A.
: Modelação Matemática em Engenharia de Transportes. A Experiência do Departamento de Transportes do LNEC
Keywords: Modelo de duração; Engenharia de transportes
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Modelos de estimativa de frequência de acidentes rodoviários
Em Portugal, a investigação sobre o conhecimento dos fatores que afetam a probabilidade de ocorrência de acidentes tem-se centrado essencialmente nas estradas interurbanas. No entanto, as zonas urbanas, onde ocorrem elevadas percentagens de acidentes corporais requerem uma atenção prioritária. Com o presente estudo pretendeu contribuir-se para a melhoria da segurança rodoviária em meio urbano, através da criação de ferramentas que podem ser utilizadas em métodos de intervenção em que a segurança dos utentes vulneráveis seja considerada explicitamente nas fases de planeamento e gestão das redes viárias. Uma das referidas ferramentas resultou da elaboração de modelos de estimativa de frequência de acidentes para redes urbanas, segundo diversas desagregações, em função de características do elemento rodoviário: em intersecções (três ramos, quatro ramos e rotundas) e em segmentos; segundo o tipo de acidente (atropelamentos e restantes acidentes com vítimas); e segundo a inclusão de variáveis explicativas relacionadas com o ambiente rodoviário: simplificados (apenas com as variáveis de exposição) e globais (com todas as potenciais variáveis explicativas). O desenvolvimento destes modelos foi apoiado numa base de dados georreferenciada dos acidentes rodoviários ocorridos em Lisboa entre 2004 e 2007, com a qual foi possível explorar os dados de sinistralidade na área geográfica em análise. Estas ferramentas podem ser usadas diretamente na gestão das infraestruturas rodoviárias da cidade de Lisboa e, após pequenas adaptações, estendidas a outros municípios, dotando as respetivas entidades competentes em matéria de segurança rodoviária com informação rigorosa e detalhada sobre os fatores intervenientes na ocorrência de acidentes em meio urbano e a respetiva distribuição espacial.
Year: 2021
Number Pages:
71-96pp.
Author(s): Vieira Gomes, S.; Cardoso, J. L.
: Modelação Matemática em Engenharia de Transportes
Editor: LNEC
Keywords: Método empírico de Bayes; Acidentes rodoviários; Modelação linear generalizada; Zonas de acumulação de acidentes; Modelos de estimativa de frequência de acidentes
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Modelos Explicativos da Gravidade dos Acidentes Rodoviários
Os dados discretos ou em escala nominal desempenham um papel fundamental nos transportes porque muitas análises de políticas lidam com estes tipos de dados. Exemplos de dados discretos nos transportes incluem o modo de transporte (automóvel, autocarro, comboio), o tipo ou categoria de veículo e o tipo de acidente rodoviário (despistes, colisões frontais, colisões traseiras, etc.). O conhecimento do efeito das diferentes intervenções de segurança rodoviária na redução da gravidade das lesões resultantes de acidentes rodoviários exige uma avaliação empírica detalhada das interações, reconhecidamente complexas, entre veículos, estrada e fatores humanos.Os avanços mais recentes nas metodologias estatísticas aplicadas a dados discretos sobre sinistralidade rodoviária permitiram o desenvolvimento de modelos sofisticados capazes de serem usados para determinar com rigor a influência dos fatores acima referidos nos níveis de gravidade das lesões resultantes dos acidentes rodoviários.Neste contexto, a aplicação de modelos de resultado discreto permite identificar um conjunto de fatores, relacionados com a envolvente rodoviária, que são estatisticamente relacionáveis com a gravidade das lesões dos utentes envolvidos em acidentes rodoviários, permitindo aperfeiçoar a conceção e o dimensionamento das estradas, bem como orientar políticas conducentes à melhoria da segurança rodoviária. Este capítulo inclui um exemplo de aplicação do modelo logit multinomial usando a gravidade das lesões no condutor como variável de resposta.
Year: 2021
Number Pages:
97-108.
Author(s): Roque, C. A.; Cardoso, J. L.
: Modelação Matemática em Engenharia de Transportes. A Experiência do Departamento de Transportes do LNEC.
Keywords: Acidente rodoviário; Modelo de resultado discreto; Modelo logit multinomial
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A hybrid approach for prioritising road safety interventions in urban areas
Spatial organization in cities has often given a special attention to the requirements of motorized vehicles, neglecting pedestrians and cyclists
Year: 2020
Number Pages:
204-208pp.
Author(s): Vieira Gomes, S.; Roque, C. A.; Cardoso, J. L.
: Proceedings of the XXIV International Conference on Living and Walking in Cities.
Editor: CRC Press, Taylor & Francis Group
Keywords: High crash risk sites; Empirical Bayes method; GIS; Accident prediction models
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The role of sustainable urban mobility plans and ICT to improve public space for social inclusion
The importance of sustainable urban mobility plans is widely recognized by local and regional authorities across Europe. Technological innovation opportunities such as those offered by current and future ICT can contribute for cities to advance towards sustainable mobility and accessibility for inclusive public spaces.This article is built on an innovative living lab experience of the Intermunicipal Community of the Algarve (AMAL), the regional transport authority, scientifically supported by the LNEC, in Portugal, that comprised the development of the designated
Year: 2018
Number Pages:
109-122pp.
Author(s): Arsénio, E.; Coelho, J.
: Neighbourhood & City - Between digital and analogue perspectives
Editor: UL/COST
Keywords: Transport decarbonisation; Low carbon mobility; Accessibility; Transport planning and policies; Public spaces; App; Information and communications technology; Sustainable mobility
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Tese de Doutoramento
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Avaliação da Influência da Infra
O conhecimento dos factores que afectam a probabilidade de ocorrência de um acidente éuma área de investigação relevante de há muitas décadas devido aos enormes custos para asociedade dos acidentes rodoviários. Em Portugal, os desenvolvimentos nesta matériacentraram-se essencialmente nas estradas inter-urbanas. No entanto, as zonas urbanas,caracterizadas por elevadas percentagens de acidentes corporais (cerca de 69% do total entre2004 e 2008), requerem uma atenção prioritária.Com o presente estudo pretendeu contribuir-se para a melhoria da segurança rodoviária emmeio urbano, através da criação de ferramentas que podem ser utilizadas em métodos deintervenção em que a segurança dos utentes vulneráveis seja considerada explicitamente nasfases de planeamento e gestão das redes viárias.A primeira ferramenta correspondeu à criação de uma base de dados georreferenciada dosacidentes rodoviários ocorridos na cidade de Lisboa entre 2004 e 2007, que permitiu adefinição de mapas digitais, com possibilidade de uma grande diversidade de consultas e decruzamentos de informação.A segunda ferramenta refere-se à elaboração de modelos de estimativa de frequência deacidentes para redes urbanas, segundo diversas desagregações: segundo o elementorodoviário: em intersecções (intersecção de três ramos, intersecção de quatro ramos erotundas) e em segmentos; segundo o tipo de acidente: atropelamentos e restantes acidentescom vítimas; e segundo a inclusão de variáveis explicativas relacionadas com o ambienterodoviário: simplificado (apenas com as variáveis de exposição) e global (com todas aspotenciais variáveis explicativas). Foi considerada a incorporação de dados de exposiçãorelativos aos utentes vulneráveis por forma a melhorar a capacidade de estimativa dasinistralidade em redes urbanas.Estas duas ferramentas podem ser usadas directamente na gestão de infra-estruturas, dotandoas entidades com competência em matéria de segurança rodoviária com informação rigorosa edetalhada sobre os factores intervenientes na ocorrência de acidentes em meio urbano erespectiva distribuição espacial.
Year: 2010
Number Pages:
371.
Author(s): Vieira Gomes, S.
Keywords: Sistemas de informação geográficos; Modelos matemáticos; Zona urbana; Segurança rodoviária
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Estudo das Relações entre as Características da Estrada, a Velocidade e os Acidentes Rodoviários. Aplicação a Estradas de Duas Vias e Dois Sentidos.
No período de 1988 a 1993, ocorreram anualmente nas estradas rurais de uma faixa de rodagem e dois sentidos da Rede Rodoviária Nacional de Portugal, em média, cerca de 1471 acidentes corporais anuais em curva fora de cruzamentos. Estes acidentes constituem cerca de 33% dos acidentes corporais fora de cruzamentos participados na referida rede.O objectivo do presente trabalho é contribuir para o conhecimento da influência da estrada na ocorrência de acidentes e para o desenvolvimento de um método para avaliação de traçados rodoviários do ponto de vista da segurança.Foram realizadas in situ campanhas de recolha de dados sobre as distribuições de velocidades dos condutores, os quais foram relacionados com as características geométricas das estradas e com a respectiva sinistralidade. Foram desenvolvidos modelos para estimativa de perfis de velocidade de circulação livre, bem como modelos para estimativa da frequência de acidentes, em estradas de uma faixa de rodagem e dois sentidos, adaptados às condições de tráfego nacionais. Os referidos modelos foram integrados num procedimento para detectar inconsistências de velocidade em especial associadas à ocorrência de acidentes em curva, o qual foi usado para fundamentar uma proposta de quantificação de critérios de homogeneidade de traçado, adaptados à realidade do sistema de tráfego rodoviário português.
Year: 1996
Author(s): Cardoso, J. L.
Keywords: estrada de 2 vias e 2 sentidos; Modelos de frequência de acidentes; Homogeneidade de traçado; Velocidade; Acidente rodoviário; Características da estrada
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Relatório Científico
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ESTIMATIVA DE FREQUÊNCIAS DE ACIDENTES RODOVIÁRIOS EM MEIO URBANO CONSIDERANDO VOLUMES DE TRÁFEGO DE PEÕES
O presente relatório refere-se à actividade em curso LNEC no âmbito da investigaçãoprogramada (2005-2008) sobre a segurança rodoviária em meio urbano.Neste documento relatam-se os resultados da aplicação de modelos de estimativa deacidentes, desenvolvidos internacionalmente, às intersecções da Av. do Brasil e da Av.Rio de Janeiro, em Lisboa, de forma a avaliar o ajuste das estimativas obtidas nocontexto nacional.São apresentadas as conclusões relativas à aplicabilidade dos modelos analisados. Acomparação entre as frequências de acidentes observadas e as estimadas permitiuconstatar uma desadequação dos modelos estudados ao contexto rodoviário urbanode Lisboa, uma vez que os valores estimados foram bastante superiores aosobservados.
Year: 2008
Number Pages:
121pp.
Author(s): Vieira Gomes, S.; Cardoso, J. L.
Keywords: Intersecções urbanas; Passagem de peões; Atropelamentos
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ANÁLISE DE RISCO EM TÚNEIS RODOVIÁRIOS O Modelo DG-QRAM
O presente relatório tem como objectivo descrever o estado da prática actual no que se refere àanálise de risco em túneis rodoviários, designadamente no contexto europeu. Pretendeu-seigualmente apresentar o software de avaliação de riscos no transporte de mercadorias perigosas DGQRAM(Dangerous Goods - Quantitative Risk Assessment Model), desenvolvido pela ComissãoTécnica C3.3 do PIARC (World Road Association) em conjunto com a OCDE (Organização para aCooperação e Desenvolvimento Económico), e avaliar a viabilidade da sua aplicação em Portugal.É apresentado o contexto legal e analisado o enquadramento técnico-científico em que se inserem asanálises de risco, designadamente em túneis rodoviários. Descreve-se pormenorizadamente oprograma DG-QRAM, o respectivo funcionamento
Year: 2007
Number Pages:
52pp.
Author(s): Lima Azevedo, C.; Cardoso, J. L.
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Dissemination to the Road Safety Information System. SafetyNet Deliverable D3.4.
Safety performance indicators (SPIs) can be used to improve our understanding of the causes of accidents, and they can be used to monitor policy interventions. In that sense, they are one of the elements of a safety management system. SafetyNet Work Package 3 deals with these indicators. On the basis of the ETSC report 'Transport Safety Performance Indicators' (2001) [1], seven domains for SPIs have been defined: 1. Alcohol and drug-use 2. Speeds 3. Protection systems 4. Daytime running lights 5. Vehicles (passive safety) 6. Roads 7. Trauma management In Work Package 3, seven tasks are defined that work on each of the respective SPI domains. Their findings are communicated through reports, presentations, conferences and a website. This deliverable deals with the communication of findings through the European Road Safety Observatory website (http://www.erso.eu). The report contains those web texts, published on the website, that are adapted from the contents of Deliverable 3.1 from SafetyNet WP3, the State-of-the-art report. The web text focuses on the explanation of the concept of SPIs, and gives background details of two SPI areas: alcohol & drugs, and speeds. In the future new web texts related to the subject of Road Safety Performance Indicators will be added to the ERSO website.
Year: 2006
Author(s): Hafen, K.; Hasse, A.; Allenbach, R.; Riguelle, F.; Verbeke, T.; Eksler, V.; Haddak, M.; Holló, P.; Arsénio, E.; Cardoso, J. L.; Vieira Gomes, S.; Papadimitriou, E.; Goldenbeld, C.; Mathijssen, R.; Lou
Keywords: European Road Safety Observatory; safety management system; Road safety; Safety performance indicators
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Road Safety Performance Indicators: Country Comparisons. SafetyNet Deliverable D3.7a
This report compares the safety performance of 27 European countries
Year: 2006
Author(s): Hafen, K.; Riguelle, F.; Eksler, V.; Haddak, M.; Holló, P.; Arsénio, E.; Cardoso, J. L.; Vieira Gomes, S.; Papadimitriou, E.; Amelink, M.; Goldenbeld, C.; Mathijssen, R.; Louwerse, R.; Morsink, P.; Sc
Keywords: Data collection; Country comparisons; Road safety; Safety performance indicator
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Road Safety Performance Indicators: Theory. SafetyNet Deliverable D3.6
This document provides details about the theory behind the development of Safety Performance Indicators (SPIs) in seven major areas which are central to the fields of activity in road safety in Europe. The fields of activity were selected as a result of reviews of national road safety plans in many of the EU countries and around the world and are considered the central themes of activity in road safety, necessary to bring about a significant improvement in road safety in the EU countries. Within each field SPIs were developed which are directly related to that field of activity, can be quantitatively measured, can provide the basis for the assessment of the level of road safety in each country and can serve as an indicator to describe the level of activity in that field and country and can provide a yardstick for comparison. Comparisons can be before and after certain actions are taken or can be comparisons between countries. As stated above, this document deals with the theory behind the development of each of the seven SPIs. It provides the rationale behind their development, the proofs for their relevance in the specific fields and the existing limitations that led to the adoption of the specific SPIs. The document provides also some recommendations for the possible improvements required to obtain better SPIs. Two companion documents are also being prepared. One is a manual which provides details on the procedures necessary to collects the required data for the development of each SPI in each country. The second document provides results on the data collected so far for each of the 25 EU countries and the SPIs developed so far, based on the data submitted by each of the countries. It can be seen that a lot of work still has to be done, both in collecting the necessary data and in improving the SPIs, once better and more detailed data becomes available.
Year: 2006
Author(s): Hafen, K.; Hasse, A.; Lerner, M.; Allenbach, R.; Riguelle, F.; Eksler, V.; Striegler, R.; Haddak, M.; Holló, P.; Arsénio, E.; Cardoso, J. L.; Vieira Gomes, S.; Papadimitriou, E.; Amelink, M.; Goldenbe
Keywords: Data collection; Road safety; Safety performance indicator
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Safety Performance Indicators: posters for the first SafetyNet Conference
Work Package 3 of SafetyNet deals with Safety Performance Indicators. They measure the operational conditions of the road traffic system. Work Package 3 deals with seven topics: alcohol and drug use; speeds; protective systems; daytime running lights; vehicles; road; trauma management. This deliverable concerns the contribution of Work Package 3 to the first SafetyNet conference, which was held in Prague on May 10 and 11, 2006. Each topic prepared a poster with an overview of the state-of-play. In this document, these posters are assembled. Each topic has a preferred indicator, which can be used for measuring safety performance across countries. This indicator is accompanied by requirements that should be met by the data, in order to be able to calculate the indicator. For most tasks, values could be calculated for the indicators by using the available data. Data are not available for all countries and/or all topics.
Year: 2006
Author(s): Hafen, K.; Hasse, A.; Allenbach, R.; Riguelle, F.; Verbeke, T.; Eksler, V.; Haddak, M.; Holló, P.; Arsénio, E.; Cardoso, J. L.; Vieira Gomes, S.; Papadimitriou, E.; Goldenbeld, C.; Mathijssen, R.; Lou
Keywords: SafetyNet conference; road traffic system; Safety performance indicator
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A comparative study of the development of road safety in Catalonia, Spain, Portugal and Greece.
This report is one of three area reports that examine the road safety performance of the nine countries participating in the SUNflowerplus project. This area report compares the road safety situation of the Southern countries of Greece, Portugal and Spain (including a separate analysis for the Spanish autonomous region of Catalonia).The aim of this report is to identify the major road traffic risk differences between Southern European countries based upon a comparative approach initially applied by the SUN (Sweden, United Kingdom & the Netherlands) countries, and focussed on the analysis of fatalities by users of different modes of road transport.The method for comparing the Southern countries has been developed from that of the original SUNflower report (SWOV, 2002), and is reflected in the organisation of the chapters:- Description of national policy and plans. - Description of the transport context.- Fatalities by road user mode and collisions between modes.- Case studies for: drink-driving, seat belts, young drivers, speed management, pedestrians, mopeds and motorcycles.In some cases (for example, young drivers and pedestrians), the indicators used to compare the situation in the Southern countries are common to those reported in the SUN and Central areas. In other cases (for example, speed management) the situations are very different and there is less scope for comparison.SUNflower+6 compares statistics for road fatalities in terms of fatalities within 30 days of the accident. In all three Southern countries, the figures are based on national factors applied to police data recording deaths within 24 hours. In producing indicators, various efforts to improve data systems have been detected. In general, a greater use of information and communications technologies could improve the process of data registration as well as facilitating improved analysis.All three countries (and the autonomous region of Catalonia) have published a plan covering a period of three or more years (including the current year of 2005) that sets quantified targets for a reduction in the number of road accident fatalities. Such progress in road safety planning is a relatively new aspect of road safety activity in the Southern countries studied. The targeted reductions for Portugal are even more ambitious than those of the EU White Policy paper proposing a halving in road deaths by 2010, whilst those for Spain and Catalonia are in line with the European overall projection and those for Greece are more modest.
Year: 2005
Author(s): Hayes, S.; Serrano, S.; Giralt, L. P.; Zori, P.; Handanos, Y.; Lymperi, C.; Katsochis, D.; Macedo, A. L.; Cardoso, J. L.; Vieira Gomes, S.
Keywords: injury; traffic; policy; Road safety
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State of the art Report on Road Safety Performance Indicators.
GeneralRoad safety can be assessed in terms of the social costs of crashes and injuries. However, simply counting crashes or injuries is an imperfect indicator of the level of road safety. When crashes occur it is the
Year: 2005
Author(s): Hafen, K.; Lerner, M.; Allenbach, R.; Verbeke, T.; Eksler, V.; Haddak, M.; Holló, P.; Arsénio, E.; Cardoso, J. L.; Vieira Gomes, S.; Papadimitriou, E.; Amelink, M.; Goldenbeld, C.; Mathijssen, R.; Lou
Keywords: Safety performance Indicators; Road safety
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SUNFLOWER+6. Southern Group. Case Study on Pedestrians
The SUNflower+6 project is based on a comparative study regarding road safety in nine countries and one autonomous region from the EU. These countries are divided into three groups: -
Year: 2005
Author(s): Macedo, A. L.; Vieira Gomes, S.; Cardoso, J. L.; Handanos, Y.; Katsochis, D.; Serrano, S.; Zori, P.; Hayes, S.
Keywords: Pedestrians; Road user; Fatality; Injury; Policy; Road safety
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ICT
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Audit de sécurité routière au projet de routes du réseau routier national
Ce document est la traduction en langue française du manuel destiné à appuyer la mise en oeuvre d'audits de sécurité routière au projet d
Year: 2018
Author(s): Cardoso, J. L.
Keywords: PT; La sécurité routière; Manuel; Audit; Projet routier
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Estado-da-arte sobre medidas de engenharia de segurança rodoviária em ambiente urbano e sobre modelos de estimativa da frequência de acidentes - Resultados do projecto IRUMS
O presente documento constitui o primeiro relatório referente à actividadedesenvolvida pelo Laboratório Nacional de Engenharia Civil (LNEC) e pela Faculdadede Ciências e Tecnologias da Universidade de Coimbra (FCT/UC) no âmbito doprojecto IRUMS
Year: 2011
Number Pages:
152pp.
Author(s): Vieira Gomes, S.; Cardoso, J. L.; Carvalheira, C.; Picado Santos, L.
Editor: LNEC
Keywords: Previsão estatística; Modelo estatístico; Acidente rodoviário; Área urbana; Segurança rodoviária
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Método para intervenção na infra-estrutura rodoviária urbana para melhoria da segurança - Resultados do projecto IRUMS
O presente documento constitui o quinto relatório referente à actividade desenvolvidapelo Laboratório Nacional de Engenharia Civil (LNEC) e pela Faculdade de Ciências eTecnologias da Universidade de Coimbra (FCT/UC) no âmbito do projecto IRUMS
Year: 2011
Number Pages:
51pp.
Author(s): Vieira Gomes, S.; Cardoso, J. L.; Carvalheira, C.; Picado Santos, L.
Editor: LNEC
Keywords: Análise de dados; Modelo estatístico; Acidente rodoviário; Segurança rodoviária; Área urbana; Infra-estrutura rodoviária
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Accident prediction models for bidirectional data on portuguese motorways
The present document describes prediction models for accident, fatalities,serious injuries and killed and seriously injured victims, adjusted to bidirectionaldata of Portuguese motorway sections. The study was developed at LaboratórioNacional de Engenharia Civil (LNEC) in the scope of Workpackage 2 - SafetyImpact Assessment and Accident Prediction Model of the RIPCORD-ISERESTproject, carried out under the 6th European Framework Program. It covers theissues related to modeling accidents using the Negative Binomial modelregressions as well as detailed diagnostic checks of the models obtained.The data used were collected over a five year period, ranging from 1999 to2003. Several explanatory variables were measured concerning exposure,number of lanes, presence of an additional lane, lane widths, type and widths ofthe road
Year: 2009
Number Pages:
153pp.
Author(s): Lopes, S.; Cardoso, J. L.
Editor: LNEC
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Outro
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Benchmarking road safety in Latin American countries
The main objective of the project was the benchmarking of road safety performances and developments of ten Latin American countries.The comparison allowed to identify the similarities and differences between countries, not only on the number of crashes and casualties, but also on the factors, circumstances and events that influence the risk of a crash and the severity of its outcome. The analysis was performed in the following areas
Year: 2018
Author(s): Vieira Gomes, S.; Feypell, V.; Wegman, F.
Keywords: Data collection; Latin America; Benchmarking; Road safety
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Document organisationnel du système de comptage. Document descriptif des besoins
Neste relatório é proposta a estrutura organizacional para realização das contagens tendentes ao recenseamento de tráfego rodoviário na rede de estradas interubanas da Argélia, incluindo o dimensionamento do parque de equipamento de contagem a usar, sua configuração (cntagens permanentes e temporárias), bem como a avaliação dos prazos de realização, em função da dimensão das equipas encarregadas da colocação e exploração dos equipamentos nos trechos da rede rodoviária.
Year: 2017
Author(s): Rème, A.; Courbon, T.; Robin, V.; Cardoso, J. L.
Keywords: Rede rodoviária; Tráfego rodoviário
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Transport Challenge in Horizon 2020. ECTRI suggestions for the third work programme (2018-2020) in the field of "Transport economics and policy"
The European Conference of Transport Research Institutes (ECTRI) is an international non
Year: 2016
Author(s): Arsénio, E.; Heddebaut, O.; Tuominen, A.
Keywords: Connected and automated transport; Socio-economic research; Low carbon transport; Behavioural research; Transport policies; Transport economics; Integrated transport; Green transport; Smart transport; Horizon 2020
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Assessment of intermodal freight transport costs
The research reported in this paper is part of the R&D project COST-TRENDs, funded by the Portuguese Foundation for Science and Technology. It presents a strategic assessment study of the hinterland connections centred in the Port of Sines, in Portugal, that integrates the core network corridor of the Trans-European Transport Network (TEN-T) designated as the Atlantic corridor. The study comprised the analysis of trends of maritime freight costs until 2020 and the assessment of alternative intermodal freight transport options to reduce costs along the multimodal transport chains. The options evaluated focused in the Iberian section of the Atlantic corridor and included the combination of maritime-short sea shipping, maritime-rail, maritime-road and, also, rail-air modes. The study estimated several key performance indicators for each option which aim to provide useful inputs to transport policy.
Year: 2014
Number Pages:
16pp.
Author(s): Prata, J.; Arsénio, E.
Keywords: Freight transport costs; Co2 emissions; Climate change externalities; Intermodal freight transport
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How to Promote Sustainable Land-Use Changes Through Developing Intermodal High-Speed Railway Stations: a case study in Portugal
The literature shows that the development of the railway system in most European countries had a key role both in the evolution of urban systems and regional dynamics. On the other hand, it can be said that railway stations might act as important drivers for promoting sustainable land-use changes, namely of node and place functions which can be consistently balanced.The future Portuguese High-Speed Railway (HSR) network is considered as a major strategic transport scheme at both the Iberian and national levels. Its first stage comprises three routes. Of these, one links the Lisbon Metropolitan Area with the Spanish border of Badajoz, being an integral part of the HSR between both Iberian capitals, whereas the other two form the Atlantic Axis, encompassing a system of cities ranging from Lisbon to Porto, an from the latter point to Braga, Vigo and Coruña, concentrating nearly 80% of the whole Portuguese population, and serving an area generating about 90% of Portugal
Year: 2010
Number Pages:
30p..
Author(s): Arsénio, E.; Tao, M.; Ferreira, F.
Editor: PTRC, UK
Keywords: Stated-choice survey; Discrete choice models; Territorial impacts; Intermodality; High-speed rail
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